Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 23 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
GEELONG - Race 1
#5 KING TOMMY (2) - M Ellerton
The work of the un-named Capitalist colt under the breeding CAPITALIST x TORAH past the line in Heat 8 on Dec 23 was eye catching. He was hard held throughout the heat as he sat in behind the leaders and speed, but his work once he got a gap in the straight (which was as they were crossing the line) was electric, he exploded to the front with ease and was a good 2L in front in a matter of strides. Super first jump out, huge watch.
Doubt you’ll see any better jump outs than KING TOMMY’s win in Heat 5 on Jan 14, clocking the second fastest time of the morning that was well above average. Worth noting that the only horse to clock a faster time was the race fit 80-rated Yulong Command. This Capitalist 3yo gelding was mentioned after his Dec 23 jump out with his work past the line being the big eye catcher, but there was no hiding his talent in this heat as he won by at least 5L as easy as you possibly could. His jump outs do the talking, and they’re telling us he is very talented.
#7 PINK AND BLACK (6) - J Edwards
PINK AND BLACK is a mare we’ve been following ever since her huge Feb 23 win earlier this year ahead of the likes of Yulong Sovereign, Zorro’s Dream, Mystery Shot and Pretty Brazen. In her return in Heat 2 on Dec 3, she sat on speed and was extremely hard held in the straight with Sevillana the only one who got her late. She looks talented - we’re hoping to see one more nice jump out before making her a definite highlight runner.
Quite keen on PINK AND BLACK. Despite being well held throughout, she continue to pull away to win Heat 2 on Dec 15 quite impressively and has now won multiple jump outs impressively, including jump outs on Feb 23 (1st) and Dec 3 (2nd). We mentioned her after that previous jump out, so she’s now put together successive jump outs this preparation and looks ready to go to the races and make her debut. The 4yo daughter of Toronado has been given plenty of time and being a half-sister to Westbrook Park, she looks as though she has talent. Big watch on debut.
#8 ALL SHE WROTE (11) - M Laurie
ALL SHE WROTE was a $3 second favourite on debut but was held up for pretty much the whole straight and never got a chance to run. She looks to have that get back and run on pattern though, which might be a little tricky. She was always at the back in a Dec 22 jump out and then was wide and out the back in Heat 5 on Jan 5, but was way too classy late as she cruised up the outside to win. No doubt she has talent, she’s just going to need a bit of luck in running but if she gets it, she won’t be a maiden for long.
GEELONG - Race 2
OTHER
Cruising to the line in 2nd place in Heat 6 on Dec 23 was the returning 3yo filly #2 CHELOON, moving very smoothly in only her first jump out back following a disappointing debut on Boxing Day last year at Caulfield. She’s been given plenty of time and is one to follow into another jump out.
OUR THOUGHTS
Geelong, Race 1 - KING TOMMY (& ALL SHE WROTE + PINK AND BLACK)
KING TOMMY is the pick of the three for us. His jump outs were simply super, the first one in particular with his work past the line. He draw's barrier 2 here with Damian Lane on board, so expect him to sit just in behind the leaders and get a perfect run. If he gets clear air in the straight, he'll be hard to beat.
ALL SHE WROTE was scratched from Pakenham last Thursday (Jan 13) under vet advice due to a possible hoof abscess, so certainly a bit of a query here in terms of how ready to go first up she is. She draw's barrier 9 of 9 and will likely get back from the draw and look to run on late.
PINK AND BLACK has the bandages on for the debut, which isn't a great sign. Scratched from a race last week where he had been drawn really well - debuts here on the home track though with another lovely draw of barrier 5, just not completely convinced he has the class of KING TOMMY.
Have to make note of RUGGIERO too, the 3yo colt has only had the one jump out on Jan 5 where he closed well behind Wanroo who has since ran 3rd in a BM64 at Caulfield. We had him noted down as one to follow into another jump out, but instead he heads to the races.
KING TOMMY would've been a 3-unit bet in any other race, while ALL SHE WROTE and PINK AND BLACK both would've been medium confidence plays in any other race - which is really frustrating!
At the prices, we can back KING TOMMY and save on the other two, so we're just going to back KING TOMMY for a medium confidence play and look for his class to get him over the top. Frustrating and we'll just have to cop it on the chin if our other runners beat him and look to play again second up.
Best result, KING TOMMY wins while our other two runners run well and we can follow second up!
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 2.00 units.
Geelong, Race 1
KING TOMMY ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $2.60
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +24.39 units at Recommend Price | +61.57 units at Betfair SP
When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.
PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY
Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!
She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!
We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...