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BlackBook - Sunday, 23 April 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 23 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SALE - Race 2

OTHER

Following two nice runs when 4th and 3rd, the blinkers went on third up last preparation for #6 RUSSIAN SUMMER and he just stood in the gates, taking no part in the race. He was spelled and also had the ultimate gear change, a gelding, where he’s looked quite solid in both his jump outs, the first on Mar 31 when cruising in behind the pack without getting clear air and the latest in Heat 5 on Apr 6 where he sat behind the leaders and then was given a push as he edged out around the bend to close quite nicely over the top of previous winners in Setteveli and Jezoulenko in a nice performance. He clocked the third fastest time of the morning and this will be the perfect lead up to his first up run where he should be running well, it’s just his get back and run on racing pattern that is the worry.


ECHUCA - Race 2

OTHER

#12 TAPO did everything but win last preparation, finishing 2nd and 3rd in all four of her runs. She was entered in at Yarra Valley on Monday to resume with no jump outs or trials but they scratched her to have a jump out here in Heat 11 on Apr 3. She showed some nice gate speed where was challenged in the early stages but didn’t lay down, fighting that horse off to clearly lead and then kicked away around the bend to open up a margin and record quite an easy dominant win in the end. She’ll likely head to the races now on the back of only 1x jump out but if she finds that mid-week 1000m maiden, she’ll be competitive.


ECHUCA - Race 7

OTHER

#6 MIGHTY FEAT is another from Heat 13 on Mar 14 that is worth keeping a close eye on, but did so in opposite fashion as this 6yo gelding led and travelled under no riding to and through the line as he was only nabbed late, a nice return jump out following a long spell and stable change to Scott McIntosh. He’s only got the 1x win from 22x career starts, so there will be minimal confidence when he resumes especially after a long break but we might get a big price in a 0-58/BM58.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sale, Race 2

#6 RUSSIAN SUMMER (7) - M & L Kavanagh

Medium.

He jumped out super at Flemington, both times without the blinkers that he has had on raceday and has on again here, in addition to being gelded.

He's a big winning chance here in a race that lacks some depth outside of Spirited Writings, who deserves to be up there in the market.


The Kavanagh's gave him a good chance in their weekly preview on YouTube - watch here.


The issue is the price as he's getting quite short now but the price does look about right - so we'll ½ stake bet at the $2.20 available now and if we can get closer to ~$3 late, we'll have another ½ stake bet.

Echuca, Race 2

#12 TAPO (2) - G Johnstone

This looks a nice kick off point for this filly having had the 5x career starts all over 1100m, which is no different here.

She led them up in her jump out and with the 3kg claiming apprentice from barrier 2 here, expect that to be no different here.

Rose Hammond has had the 20x rides for Gwenda Johnstone for 5x wins (25% SR), which is quite good for an apprentice with only 8x career wins.


She's too short for us to be playing though at ~$1.65 so we'll leave her for no bets unless she gets to $2.50-$3 (unlikely though) - will message in Telegram if she does and we want to play.

Echuca, Race 7

#6 MIGHTY FEAT (13) - S Mcintosh

Low/Medium.

His trial was absolutely super where he led throughout and just cruised, with Mawkeb (since 6th & 1st in MDN's) and Grisbi's Pal (since 4th & 4th in MDN's) just running over the top of him late.


Unseen for over a year and only had the 1x trial that was 5-6 weeks ago, so a big query on fitness first up but his form actually reads quite well for a 0-58 so he can certainly measure up if he's at his best, as his trial suggested.


Hoping A Kelly doesn't muck around gets him going forward from the wide draw and if he gets across, he can run well so happy to have a bet at the price.

Playing ½ now at $10+ and the other ½ on the SP.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Echuca, Race 2

#14 WALK OF FAME (5) - D O'Brien

BlackBook jump out comments:

Having their first jump outs this prep, both WALK OF FAME (1st) and ALBANIAN STAR (2nd) both in some nice bits of work in Heat 4 on Mar 29 as they held off previous maiden winner The Genius. These two 3yo filly’s are worth keeping an eye on for another jump out ahead of their debut/return.

Sha Tin, Race 3

#4 DAILY TROPHY (4) - C Fownes

BlackBook jump out comments:

MR BARTENDER looks a talented gelding for not only Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr as trainers, but as owners with these two in the ownership alongside Upper Bloodstock. His first career jump out was over 1000m on Oct 17 where he was a class above late, going to the line untested. He then stuck at 1000m in his second career jump out, again looking slick and a class above as he won Heat 16 on Oct 24. He’s got that friendly on speed racing pattern, so on the back of these jump outs we can certainly follow him into his debut, not to mention that the stable is flying and the fact that he’s owned by the trainers, doubt they’ll be wasting his runs especially early on in his career.

Sha Tin, Race 3

#9 STAR CLUB (2) - R Gibson

BlackBook jump out comments:

Monitoring STAR CLUB from Heat 11 on Aug 30 as well, the 3yo Star Turn gelding having his first jump out for the prep and recording a nice win when coming from the back.

Last Updated: 8:51am AEDT on Sunday, 23rd April 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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