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BlackBook - Sunday, 22 January 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 22 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


MORNINGTON - Race 2

#8 OUR GODDESS (6) - C McDonald

OUR GODDESS is another to follow from Heat 7 on Jan 9, leading throughout and only just being overran late by Theorum to finish a close 2nd. This was her first jump out back following 3x 2nd’s in her debut prep where he’s had some solid form come from those races, finishing behind Kasparov (since 4th BM58), C'est Magique (since 2nd in Group 1 Coolmore) and Our Redente (since won 3 of next 4 races). Following this 4yo mare into another jump out before she resumes. Expecting OUR GODDESS to be awfully hard to beat wherever she goes first up, but certainly will be hoping for an easy kill. She was good in her first jump out on Jan 9, but her work in Heat 14 on Jan 16 was super as she and the talented Mrs Chrissie went toe to toe throughout, finishing 1st and 2nd with a bit of a gap to 3rd as they were both simply too good. As mentioned last week, she’s had some solid form come from her debut prep, finishing behind Kasparov (since 4th BM58), C'est Magique (since 2nd in Group 1 Coolmore) and Our Redente (since won 3 of next 4 races), so that form coupled with some slick JO’s is a very good recipe. Very keen to follow her first up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Mornington, Race 2

#8 OUR GODDESS (4) - C McDonald

High.

Her jump outs could not have been any better in the lead up to her second career prep so those along with some nice form from her debut prep, she looks very well placed here with barrier 6 and Ben Melham on board. Treotto was a big danger, but he comes out having ran on Friday and that leaves the debutant Confetti Of Roses as the main danger, which highlights the lack of strength of this field as we're more than happy to risk her.


Expecting her to be awfully hard to beat here and we have to be with her.

Playing late at the SP and hoping to get around ~$2 but expecting her to start odds on.

Last Updated: 9:24am AEDT on Sunday, 22nd January 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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