BlackBook - Sunday, 21 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 21 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


SWAN HILL - Race 2

OTHER

The un-raced #8 ZEITAKUNA was pushed out over the concluding stages in Heat 16 on Nov 9, but there was a big gap back to 3rd and the 2nd horse goes alright, being the 90-rated Arcadia Prince. The 3yo jumped clearly the best of the field, going forward to lead before extending away late when asked to lengthen out. This was his third jump out this preparation since being gelded and easily his most impressive bit of work. A $100k Magic Millions purchase, he can go well on debut.


KILMORE - Race 2

OTHER

We have to keep an eye on #8 GAME TO LOVE, a $450k I Am Invincible filly who took out Heat 1 on Nov 9 in nice time after leading throughout before being pushed out late and extending away, hitting the line hard and going on with it past the line. This was her third jump out, having lead on Oct 26 as well as Nov 3 where she was also pushed out late but didn’t really respond. Her mum was Group placed over 1400m+, so she might be a filly that will get over a trip.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Swan Hill, Race 2 - ZEITAKUNA

He showed tremendous gate speed to lead along the fence, and suspect he will do the same here from barrier 1 with Harry Coffey on board. Expect him to be ready to go, having had the three jump outs with the latest two being over 1000m and he was given a push.


Of the raced, the best last start benchmark rating is +7.2 (HOFF TO SEA) with the second best at +17.0, while the best peak is +6.7 (EQUICENTRE). Not going to take a superstar to beat any of the raced. RECLOSE has jumped out fairly.


It looked a race between MY ARTEMIS and ZEITAKUNA, with MY ARTMIS scratched. Market wise and ratings wise, HOFF TO SEA looks the only danger but think ZEITAKUNA can jump and lead from barrier 1.


He's short at $2.25, but happy to have a high confidence play (on the lower end).


Kilmore, Race 2 - GAME TO LOVE

Once GOLD GLAMOUR gets scratched after racing on Saturday at Tatura, we go from having plenty of runners to just the one in GAME TO LOVE following the scratchings of GOLD GLAMOUR, WHYWHYWHYDELILAH and CHIEF CONDUCTOR.


The race is now quite thin. THE GLOBE brings in the best last start benchmark rating at +1.3 while ALONG THE RIVER +0.3 and NICE FOR WHAT +0.9 bring in the best peak benchmark ratings. These three, ratings wise, are above the rest of the field.

ALONG THE RIVER has jumped out okay for since, but doesn't have the race fitness that THE GLOBE and NICE FOR WHAT have now, both being third up. Gold Glamour had GAME TO LOVE covered easily and run poorly at Tatura on Saturday...


NICE FOR WHAT on top from THE GLOBE and then ALONG THE RIVER from GAME TO LOVE with a big gap to 5th, as the market suggests. No bets for us.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 2.50 units.


Swan Hill, Race 2

ZEITAKUNA ~ 2.50 units WIN @ $2.25 (Bet365 @ 10:45am)


Overall: +6.48 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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