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BlackBook - Sunday, 21 May 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 21 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SEYMOUR - Race 1

OTHER

DIVAZOU has had a couple of preps now, the first coming as a 2yo that ended in an official trial win ahead of Fission, who’s a talented gelding. Now a 3yo, he returned in Heat 2 on Dec 21 where he sat off the leader before showing some nice closing speed to get over the top and win very comfortably. Vincent Nolen paid $130k for this Zoustar colt from the 2021 Inglis Easter Yearling sales, so he’s a colt to follow into another jump out before debuting.

Unsure why DIVAZOU hasn’t got to the races yet considering he’s now had 7x jump outs across 3-4 different preps and even more so, won his last 5x jump outs so not sure he can do much else. He bolted in Heat 2 on Apr 28 at Seymour in the fastest time of the morning over the 800m as he led throughout and then put a space on them as he was put under pressure late, albeit not beating anything of quality. A $130k purchase back in 2021, it was only his first jump out this prep so likely has another before debuting but as mentioned, he can’t do much more ahead of his debut (if it ever comes).


ANGELIC REWARDS’s debut was a complete forgive as she was held up and never got clear running. Given more time, she returned for a lovely win on the synthetic last week on May 9 and backed that up in Heat 11 on May 15 when closing superbly from back in the field to reel in the breakaway leader with relative ease. She’s going well ahead of her return and expect a much better run first up than her debut.


SEYMOUR - Race 7

OTHER

He’s a 4yo with 11-starts for only 1x win and 3x placings, but IT’S THERE bolted in Heat 22 on May 9 over the 1000m by 7L, clocking the second fastest time of the morning in the process. It was a very simple win, jumping straight to the front and never looking back. He ran 2nd in a MDN first up last prep on the back of a jump out win so keeping a close on where he pops up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Seymour, Race 1

#1 DIVAZOU (11) - V Nolen

Medium.

He's had a lot of jump outs over numerous preps but he's still only a 3yo and he's still a colt so Vincent Nolen and his owners have been very patient.

He couldn't have done much more at the jump outs, including his first JO this prep coming at Seymour where he bolted in.


He's the one to beat here and we're happy to be with him at the ~$3 this morning.

#6 ANGELIC REWARDS (10) - R Griffiths & M de Kock

Low/Medium.

Have her as the second pick behind Divazou and in most other maiden's she'd be a bet, so think we have to have a saver bet here.


Backing her to breakeven on our bet on DIVAZOU.

Seymour, Race 7

#3 IT'S THERE (4) - L Schmidt

Low/Medium.

He doesn't have a flash record but that trial was quite good, bolting in over 1000m.

Hannah Le Blanc was on board for the trial and sticks here first up with a nice draw of barrier 4.


He will lead and look to be in it a long way.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Seymour, Race 2

#1 CONAN MAC MORNA (12) - R Cully

BlackBook jump out comments:

CONAN MAC MORNA put in a really solid performance in his first jump out in Heat 10 on Jan 23 despite flopping out of the gates. He was a clear last in the early stages but slowly edged his way forward out wide and around the field, closing off superbly under no pressure to finish a close 3rd. It was a superb bit of work despite the start and keen to follow this Heroic Valour gelding into another jump out prior to his debut.

Last Updated: 9:48am AEDT on Sunday, 21st May 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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