Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 20 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Swan Hill, Race 2
#14 RUNNING ON TIME (3) - C Maher & D Eustace
WatchList jump out comments:
RUNNING ON TIME closed well from a clear last last to finish a close 4th in Heat 5 on Nov 7, a nice bit of work in the filly’s second jump out having also finished 4th in an Oct 4 jump out behind Dream Inherit and Whatafox (since 1st MDN by 5L). Unsure of the quality she was against in this jump out but as a $165k buy, she looks to move nice enough to be keeping in mind on debut.
Race comments: This is a very winnable race with no clear standout and most of the field being relatively exposed. She jumped out well, especially that latest and Harry Coffey at Swan Hill is always a good book, likewise barrier 3. She handled the soft tracks well in her JO's and is out of an NZ mare, so wet should be fine.
Think she'll take up a more forward position than her latest jump out and with the big straight, she can work into it nicely and hopefully come home well. Have her as the main winning chance here and keen to be backing her.
She's $2.80-$3 this morning and think she starts around ~$2.50 so anything around ~$3 is good to take.
Last Updated: 8:43am on Sunday, 20th November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 698x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1063x runners | 256x winners (24%) & 291x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.09 WIN $3.01 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 36x runners | 24x wins (67%) & 7x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 67x runners | 29x wins (43%) & 17x placings (69%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 57x runners | 9x wins (16%) & 20x placings (51%)
Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):