BlackBook - Sunday, 20 March 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 20 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
YARRA VALLEY - Race 6
OTHER
Lovely all the way win in Heat 2 on Mar 2 for #10 ORLANDO GROVE (without the blinkers) in her return jump out. She wasn’t beaten more than 3.9L in her five runs last preparation, so her record is better than it looks on face value. She goes well fresh (2: 0-1-1) and is certainly good enough to go well in a BM64 or CL1 first up.
SWAN HILL - Race 7
OTHER
#7 MAYOR OF METHUL won Heat 11 on Feb 21 over the 1000m by a big 6L in the fastest time of the morning. He’ll go to a BM58 first up and might be able to give a sight, but will need to be a big price.
OUR THOUGHTS
Yarra Valley, Race 6 - ORLANDO GROVE
This race looks a good kick off point for this mare. She's drawn beautifully with barrier 5 and gets down to only 54.5kg after the 2kg claim. She had Bistro covered comfortably in her jump out and while he's 2yo, he did come out and win a Listed race at Morphetville by 3L.
Query is on the fact that she has only had the 1x jump out ahead of this first up run but it was a lovely bit of work. Kiran Quilty has had 69x rides for Shane Nichols for 8x wins, for 17.5% P.O.T and she also brings in some nice ratings - her last start last prep rated +0.4, which is the best last start rating of the race and she's also rated quite well and always been around the mark, not beaten far.
Expecting her to be around the mark again today and thought she was a good bet at the $7+ - she looks a really good E/W chance, but we'll be playing the win only.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 1.00 units.
Yarra Valley, Race 6
ORLANDO GROVE ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $7.50 (TAB) or $7.00 (TopSport)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -0.39 units at Recommend Price | +36.33 units at Betfair SP
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