Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 20 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
MOE - Race 2
OTHER
#8 CLYMENE beat home the talented More Secrets in a Aug 27 synthetic jump out, but she didn’t quite get to the races. Returning in Heat 14 on Jan 28 where she showed tremendous gate speed to get to a clear lead early, with that position not changing as she led from start to finish to win, albeit in slow time for the day. We saw her younger half-brother win on Thursday at Pakenham, being Merchant Prince, so there is certainly some talent in the family. Following.
*had an official trial on Feb 7 at Cranbourne and went okay, but not great*
BALLARAT - Race 1
OTHER
He’s a 3yo gelding with 5-start maiden with no career placings, but #4 OUR DUKE bolted in Heat 6 on Feb 7 over the 800m and clocked the second fastest time of the morning in the process. He could be one at a huge price that we might be able to have a small bet on as he resumes from a 10-week let up, but it’ll be a very low confidence play despite a nice jump out.
BALLARAT - Race 3
OTHER
#2 IMPROVIDENT has been closing really well in his jump outs as he gears up for a return to the races. He closed super from back near last in a Jan 12 Sandown jump out, finishing 3rd to the break away leaders in the undefeated Unflinching and Signal (who should’ve won on debut). He did similar in Heat 5 on Jan 27, dropping back to a clear last before coming wide around the bend and closing super despite being under no pressure. He finished 2nd on debut before a disappointing 7th where Daniel Stackhouse said his action didn’t seem right. Given more time, he looks in good order ahead of his return. One to follow, but he might need to get out in distance.
OUR THOUGHTS
No bets today for us, not confident enough on today's runners.
Ballarat, Race 3 - IMPROVIDENT
He was absolutely friendless in betting first up, drifting from ~$6 to jump at an SP of $15 and he ran well considering with excuses. He was held up from the 600m to the 200m mark, before running on okay to finish 4th. The run rated +6.6, which is the third best last start rating of the race.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -0.99 units at Recommend Price | +35.81 units at Betfair SP
When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.
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