BlackBook - Sunday, 2 January 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 2 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CRANBOURNE - Race 1

OTHER

#5 JIPUSHI was always out the back in her first jump out on Dec 6, improving here to win Heat 7 on Dec 20 as she pulled away from the field alongside the talented Sharp Response. Time wise, it was the quickest 800m heat of the day so certainly good enough work to be one to keep in mind.


CRANBOURNE - Race 8

OTHER

In the fastest 900m time of the morning, #4 BLACK TOFF AFFAIR bolted in Heat 2 on Dec 22. Slick win.


TERANG - Race 2

OTHER

#7 WHAT HAPPENED was a blackbook runner prior to being sold to Hong Kong, jumping out under his breeding Reward For Effort x Ballymoon. He clearly didn’t handle heading overseas, finishing 11th of 12 in his only run. His jump outs prior to going to HK were in 2020 including wins on Apr 20 and May 8 (ahead of The Inevitable). He lead in his first jump out back in Aus, and then just cruised the line under no urgency to finish 4th in Heat 6 on Nov 9. Always thought he was talented and was disappointed when he got sold to HK, so hopefully he’s returned to Aus with the same ability. Big watch.

#7 WHAT HAPPENED was 3rd in Heat 6 on Nov 22, his third jump out in 13 days where he was ridden cold out the back and then given a push late and asked to respond. An Aus debut shouldn’t be far away now.

As mentioned previously, #7 WHAT HAPPENED was named Colossale but has now had the name change as he comes back to Aus from HK and has had a mixed bag of jump outs and trials. His latest coming in Heat 6 on Dec 8, being a win over 1100m and he looked to move well, certainly well enough to be competitive in maidens here in VIC. We’ll follow him into his debut.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

MANGO TANGO WINE in Race 1 at Terang is a runner worth keeping in mind. He wasn't a BlackBook runner but looking back, he probably should've been. His first jump out on Nov 3 was a decent way behind impressive subsequent winner and stablemate Il Braccio. He then had a 1000m official trial on Nov 23 where he was ~5L behind Van Roy (since 2nd and 3rd MDN’s) and ~3.5L behind subsequent winner Carry On Camping. He then won a Dec 8 jump out ahead of subsequent winners No Crying (2nd) and Carry On Camping (4th) again while Bobby’s Secret (3rd) since finished 4th in a MDN. He then cruised in his fourth and final jump out on Dec 22 when 2nd to another impressive debut winner in Place Of Gold.


Terang, Race 2

We're going to play WHAT HAPPENED again here second up. First up, in his Aus debut, he was 4-wide no cover for the trip and still stuck on well for 3rd with the run rating +10.0, which is the fourth best last start rating coming into this. He draw's barrier 3 now, which is a lot more favourable and he can take up a more prominent position in the run and be hard to beat. Jack Hill takes the ride with Will Gordon on WITNESS EX instead


There isn't much value in the $2.50, but think he's worth a bet so we'll play the SP and look for a drift late (hopefully).


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 2.00 units.


Terang, Race 2

WHAT HAPPENED ~ 2.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +32.18 units at Recommend Price | +63.35 units at Betfair SP


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