BlackBook - Sunday, 19 February 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 19 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
BALLARAT - Race 4
#2 MISTER JONNO is quite a well bred gelding, being a $200k purchase as a son of Fastnet Rock out of Cats Whisker (Group 1 placed and multiple Group 2 winner) which makes him a full-brother to Catchy (winner of the Blue Diamond). This is his third prep now but is without a race start, going around in Heat 8 on Jan 18 where he went back to the rear of the field before being taken to the outside fence and asked for an effort, responding and really powering home to get over the top and win in a nice display. It’s only his first jump out back so expect to see another prior to the debut but keeping a really close eye on this gelding.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Ballarat, Race 4
#2 MISTER JONNO (6) - T Dabernig
His latest JO on Feb 6 saw him finish 5th of 6 runners in an okay performance but the track rating does say a Heavy(8), so maybe a forgive there and if you watch past the line, he darts back to the inside fence and actually finishes really well past the line.
He doesn't have much early speed, so he'll be spotting them a start and that's the query, but he looks to have a big finish and out of the chute at Ballarat, he'll be powering home. His older sister in Catchy certainly went alright... so here's hoping and he can be just ¼ as good and he'll win this. Like the booking of D Yendall.
We're backing, but ½ staking and also backing ½ of that now at the $4 and the other ½ at SP as think he might get out in price closer to the jump.
Last Updated: 9:04am AEDT on Sunday, 19th February 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):