BlackBook - Sunday, 19 December 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 19 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


HORSHAM - Race 3

OTHER

#3 MISSED THE MARK was another Steven Noble trained galloper that won comfortably, taking out Heat 13 on Dec 8 by 2L. He won a Nov 15 jump out at Kyneton prior to this, and looks to be travelling alright but will be one to spec at hopefully a big price.


#5 SUGAR AND SWEET was pretty much the only one of the four in the field of Heat 7 on Dec 7 to jump away cleanly, so the big winning margin shouldn’t hold a lot of weight. In saying that, he went to the line untouched and clocked the fastest 800m time of the morning and in only his first jump out. He was purchased for $600 in the Inglis June (Late) Online Sale having been a previous $425k purchase at the 2019 Inglis Easter Yearling Sale, so if he runs to this jump out on debut then they’ll certainly have spent their $600 wisely… one to watch, most likely into another jump out prior to debuting.


SALE - Race 1

OTHER

#2 FORGED does a bit wrong, but there looks to be some sort of talent there. He did a bit wrong in his Nov 19 jump out but won well under the guidance of Craig Williams. He then backed up that win with a win in Heat 13 on Dec 6 where he again did a bit wrong and was green when put under pressure but looked to have a nice action. Follow into his first up run.


SALE - Race 3

OTHER

#11 PRECIOUS SOCKS is worth keeping an eye on first up, having ran 2nd first up last preparation before an unlucky second up run when wide throughout but still managing to finishing 2.2L off the winner. She won Heat 5 on Nov 9 as she prepares for her second career preparation. Not a stand out, but one to monitor.

Another very slick win for #11 PRECIOUS SOCKS, taking out Heat 2 on Nov 23 over the 1000m where she clocked a nice 1:00.46s and backed up her previous Nov 9 win. In this heat, she showed good gate speed to lead and was just too speedy despite not being asked for an effort. She seemed to have a bit on this field including Kermy in 2nd. Glenn Cross doesn’t have a lot of horses in work, but this 4yo mare has some okay form on the board as a 3yo already and on the back of these jump outs, can give a sight first up this preparation.


SALE - Race 8

OTHER

#5 DUKE OF NEWORLEANS clocked the fastest 900m time of the morning with an easy win in Heat 3 on Dec 8, albeit with some race fitness following a 5 week freshen up.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Sale, Race 1

This is an open race. There isn't a clear stand out ratings wise, with the best last starting rating at only +8.3 from CERRIDWYN and then +9.5 from TASPINARO. KAIDO looked well placed and was well backed early, but he's been scratched (again).


FORGED was scratched from a race on Friday with the stablemate then finishing 2nd. He's been quite green in his jump outs so he's a little hard to trust but can certainly run well as there looks to be some talent there, it'll just be a matter of if he can put it together.


We've got CERRIDWYN on top in an even race. Wouldn't surprise to see TASPINARO improve now gelded and FORGED can certainly go close, but he has to put it all together, which is the big query. Leaving this race with no bets.


Sale, Race 3

PRECIOUS SOCKS was 3rd on debut behind Hokolesqua but a lot went wrong and she tired late. She sticks at 1000m and will be better for the run. The run is the fourth best last start rating at +10.3 with VINLAGO bringing in the clear best ratings at +3.9 and he looks the one to beat, hence the odds on quote.


Bit of rain expected as well, which will suit VINLAGO and think he'll be hard to beat. He's only had the one jump out but if he runs to any of his 5x 1000m runs in his career, he wins this - he's on top with PRECIOUS SOCKS the second pick.


UPDATE: Brilliant Sapphire just won the first, which is good form for PRECIOUS SOCKS and we're going to have a play and save on VINLAGO now.


Horsham, Race 3

Very winnable race for SUGAR AND SWEET on debut. The ratings from the raced are simply poor. There are only two horses that have last start ratings below +20.0 (!), being our other runner MISSED THE MARK at +9.1 and WITNESS EX at +9.0.


SUGAR AND SWEET has only had the one jump out prior to debuting here but it was very quick and impressive. Like Jarrod Fry as well.

MISSED THE MARK has had a jump out and an official trial win and looks ready to go. His debut run rated +5.5, so if he's going to win a race then this is probably going to be one of his better chances at only his third career start.


We had MISSED THE MARK on top with the race fitness and ratings on the board. We just have a query on SUGAR AND SWEET with him being from a small stable, which has burnt us plenty of times as the jump outs can be hard to trust, especially for a $600 online purchase. WITNESS EX though has the race fitness and that may prove the difference after some minor placings...


No bet race.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 3.00 units.


Sale, Race 3

PRECIOUS SOCKS ~ 1.60 units WIN @ $4.20 (TopSport at 1:05pm)

VINLAGO ~ 1.40 units WIN @ $2.15 (TopSport at 1:05pm)


A couple of late scratchings due to the weather, so if placing bet now (being 1:30pm or later), play as follows:

Sale, Race 3

PRECIOUS SOCKS ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $3.70 (TAB at 1:30pm) or $3.60 (TopSport)

VINLAGO ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $2.00 (TopSport at 1:30pm)


Overall: +2.05 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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