BlackBook - Sunday, 18 September 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 18 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.

 
TELEGRAM CHAT

We've started up a Telegram Channel (for Updates) and Group (for Chat) so that we can send notifications and early updates etc. plus also just have some general racing banter and chat in the group. You don't have to join, but we would recommend it...!!

Follow the steps below:

1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org

2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1

3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9


BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Flemington, Race 8

#7 JOYFUL FORTUNE (6) - M Newnham

He was a feature on Episode 4 of our show, The Early Bird where Dean loved his trial alongside Eduardo, who we know is super talented. He has since had another trial on Sep 9 over 818m where he bolted in again.

He pops up here in a BM70, which is certainly a grade he looks better than, and while it's his first time up the straight at Flemington, he did win up the straight at Sha Tin.

If he runs up to his trials and has come back anywhere as good as his HK form, he will be hard to beat here. The issue is the Heavy track being a query and then his price, he's too short to be backing at ~$1.50 so monitor if he gets out to $2+ late.

Last Updated: 9:17am on Sunday, 18th September 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

686x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 217x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.22 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

988x runners | 230x winners (23%) & 273x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.41 WIN $3.05 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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