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BlackBook - Sunday, 18 June 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 18 June 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BENDIGO - Race 4

OTHER

WALTER SPUR was another to follow from Heat 8 on May 15. We’ll all know him from his latest prep - he was no match for Doull first up when resuming as a maiden in a 3YO Handicap race on a Wednesday before then running in a maiden at Kilmore where there was a ridiculous false start and he was somehow passed fit to race despite running half a race already and as a result, he was no chance and tired big time. Given a let up, he was another that weaved his way through the field in this jump out and closed nicely to finish 2nd in a nice return. He has a maiden win in him, no doubt.


WALTER SPUR has made a stable change across to Gavin Bedggood since his return jump out back on May 15, putting in a nice bit of work in Heat 3 on Jun 12 where he settled in the second half of the field before closing superbly out wide as he responded to a bit of pressure. He was coming home strongly here in a nice bit of work that will likely have him ready to go now first up. As we know from his last prep, he was no match for Doull first up when resuming as a maiden in a 3YO Handicap race on a Wednesday before then running in a maiden at Kilmore where there was a ridiculous false start and he was somehow passed fit to race despite running half a race already and as a result, he was no chance and tired big time. He’s got a maiden win in him.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Bendigo, Race 4

#7 WALTER SPUR (4) - G Bedggood

Medium.

His JO's last prep and this prep were super and he has the form on the board as well - ignore his last run as that was ridiculous, his 3L 3rd placing to Doull would win this by lengths.

Like that the tongue tie goes on here for the first time, always a positive gear change.


Heavy track should be fine, he handled it on debut and handled it in his recent JO.


Keen that he's the one to beat and happy to take the $3+ on offer still raceday.

Last Updated: 9:39am AEDT on Sunday, 18th June 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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