BlackBook - Sunday, 17 April 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 17 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


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STAWELL - Race 2

OTHER

It was a star studded Heat 12 on Mar 22, including group runners such as Savatoxl, Crystal Bound and Capriccio. In 3rd place though was a 1-start maiden, #7 BELLE ET RICHE who closed really well from the back of the field and hit the line with pace. The 3yo filly was quietly ridden in an earlier Mar 9 jump out when 2nd but it was this bit of work that was certainly the most impressive. She’s a huge watch first up in her second career preparation.


#8 PRINCESS NEFERTITI is another Maher & Eustace runner that was quietly ridden in her first jump out back on Mar 22 but then cruised to the line over 1000m, finishing 2nd in Heat 16 on Apr 7 in a nice bit of work. Lovely bit of work by this un-raced 3yo filly.


MORNINGTON - Race 2

OTHER

#7 KANNENBERGS ROAD is a 6x start maiden with only the 2x placings, returning to win Heat 12 on Apr 4 over the 1000m ahead of the import Kipps and Glamdam in her first jump out back. This was a slow heat for the morning (1:01.04s vs day’s average of 1:00.60s) but the lightly raced 5yo mare is one to monitor for another jump out.

In another encouraging bit of work, #7 KANNENBERGS ROAD has now put together 2x 1000m jump out wins prior to her upcoming first up run. She won a Apr 4 jump out prior to her win in Heat 12 on Apr 11 ahead of a race fit Gracias Amigo in 2nd and she can’t really do much more ahead of her return. She’s a 5yo mare that’s a 6-start maiden, so there won’t be lofty expectations but she certainly is looking like one we can spec at a price.


#9 RED SISTA is listed as ‘retired’ on Racing Australia, but it looks as though she’s back and back in really good order as she bolted in Heat 17 on Mar 16. The 4yo mare was 3rd and 2nd in her first two career starts before finishing a distant 14.5L last at Sandown where she was found to have a throat condition and be lame. She looks to be well over those issues now and was a class above in her return jump out. She’s a big watch if she gets back to the race track!

Despite a really nice Mar 16 jump out, #9 RED SISTA was disappointing over the 1000m where she finished 4th in Heat 8 on Mar 30 and was clearly no match for the first three across the line which included Curran. That first jump out was super, but this jump out certainly leaves a bit to be desired and has really dampened the confidence. We’ll be treading very carefully now.


MORNINGTON - Race 3

OTHER #8 YULONG JET was entered for a race at Cranbourne last week but was scratched, electing to have another jump out and he was again too slick. He led from start to finish in Heat 6 on Apr 6 to win in the fastest time of the morning, clocking 52.98s vs day’s average of 54.31s & overall average of 54.59s. Following those other jump out wins on Mar 16 and Mar 23, he certainly looks to be over his previous issues especially in his last start as a gelding in Jan where he bled. He will be very well suited to a tight turning track with a low barrier where he can lead and kick away around the bend. Certainly monitoring where he pops up for Matt Laurie, just not expecting anything special price wise.

 
OUR THOUGHTS (BETS)

Stawell, Race 2 - BELLE ET RICHE

She should've won first up when we were on - got way too far back and rattled home in the meetings fastest L800m/600m/400m/200m to finish 2nd. She finished 1.8L off the leader, who was Beneficio who then ran 2nd to Najmaty in a 3YO HCP at Caulfield yesterday while beating Let Fly (3rd) by 2L who has since own a MDN at Pakenham by 1.3L. The run rated +5.0, which is the second best last start rating but the rating was dictated by a slow run to the 600m mark when they then sprinted home.


Her debut rated +1.1, which is the best peak rating of the race. The step up from 1118m to 1300m certainly is a positive and she just needs to improve now second up to be very competitive here and be hard to beat.


She had barrier 10 of 11, which comes into barrier 8 of 9 post scratchings so she likely gets back from there and looks to run on late again. Expect her to be very hard to beat here. We had the 2-units on at $4.60 first up, and we'll look to have the 2-units on again here but playing the SP as think she will start $2.50-ish.


Mornington, Race 2 - KANNENBERGS ROAD

She can't do much more than win jump outs how she has and she looks to have come back in good order for her second career preparation. She has only SP'd less than $10 once, and that was $9.50 so the ~$7 looks a touch short at the moment and would expect her to drift closer to the jump. We're going to have a small spec play at the SP with that drift (hopefully).


RED SISTA's first jump out was super - her latest though, was poor. She resumes off a big break having been retired, gets some gear changes here. Not sure what to make of her and certainly don't want to be taking sub ~$2.30 for her.


OUR THOUGHTS (NO BETS)

Mornington, Race 3 - YULONG JET

Mornington will suit his racing style and barrier 5 is a lovely draw to suit as he will go forward and take some catching. He's hard to get a gauge on as both his career runs were clear forgives, but his 3x jump outs have been super to the eye and he should be more than forward enough to run well here.


In his Mar 16 jump out he beat home WESTERLEY who then ran 9th of 10 on debut (and is $51 in this race). On Mar 23 he beat home Keep Well (since 9th of 9 on debut) and Miss Moocha (yet to run but career record of 3: 0-0-1) and then in his latest on Apr 6 he beat home Catalina Black Cat (yet to run but career record of 4: 0-1-0). It's ordinary jump out form...


There looks to be a stack of speed here so he won't have it too easily out in front, which dampens the confidence along with the jump out form. This run needs to be treated as his debut run pretty much, but not keen to get involved at the $2.50. We'll monitor to see if he gets outs to $3+, probably closer to $3.50 closer to the jump.


CELSIUS STAR beat home Gracie Turf in his latest jump out, with that runner since running 4th in a MDN at $20 SP. MELANIE (+4.4) and ATLANTIC WAY (+4.0) bring in the best ratings, but there doesn't look to be a clear danger as the race is quite even.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 2.50 units.


Stawell, Race 2

BELLE ET RICHE ~ 2.25 units WIN @ Betfair SP (bet here)


Mornington, Race 2

KANNENBERGS ROAD ~ 0.25 units WIN @ Betfair SP (bet here)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +8.04 units at Recommend Price | +41.56 units at Betfair SP

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