Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 16 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
YARRA VALLEY - Race 4
#6 SEVEN’O’KEVIN recorded a really nice all the way win in Heat 2 on Jan 4 ahead of a race-fit Burning The Clock where he was quietly ridden throughout with the jockey even having a look over the shoulder at the 200m mark before pulling him up late. He had a jump out 5 weeks ago on Nov 30 when 2nd to In Due Time, who has since won a Wangaratta MDN by 2.8L, which is good jump out form. Keep an eye out for a country maiden on debut, hopefully he’s a nice price to have a spec.
Watch on the un-raced filly #7 ALLEGORICAL who had a quiet Dec 17 jump out before a relatively easy all the way win in Heat 15 on Dec 31 where she went to the lead and kicked away in the straight when given a little push to put a nice 2-3L margin on the field. She’s well bred too, being by All Too Hard out of the mare Metaphorical who placed multiple times in Group 2 and 3 races.
Simon Zahra looks to have a nice filly on his hands. #8 MESCHEVER has not looked out of place in either of her jump outs, finishing 3rd on Dec 10 just behind Yes Baby Yes and in front of Brazen Bully and Vowmaster prior to her slick win in Heat 2 on Dec 17, again alongside better than maiden grade horses in Logan Street Lion, Suricate and Excelida. She’s shown plenty of early speed in both of her jump outs, so we’d expect her to show that once she does get to the races which would make a low barrier draw more than idea. She’s a nice looking horse and looks like she might have some talent.
YARRA VALLEY - Race 5
#5 CONSTANTINOU was only overran late by Midships in Heat 1 on Jan 5, leading throughout over the 1000m following a 3rd placing in a Dec 22 700m jump out. The 5yo mare looks to move well enough to go well on debut and is one to watch.
#9 STAY IN TOUCH didn’t look out of place as she went to the line on the inside of the talented Royal Dress in Heat 8 on Jan 5 while ahead of stablemate Ocean’s Jen. The un-raced 4yo mare had a previous jump out that was quiet, so this was a more encouraging bit of work.
Yarra Valley, Race 4 - MESCHEVER
Second up now with barrier 4 is perfect - she was just overran on debut by Lord Paramount, who certainly goes alright. The run rated +2.9, which is the second best last start rating and second best peak rating with GRINZINGER PRINCE bring in the best at -2.1 from his last start - latest jump out on Jan 10 was good without being outstanding and is certainly a big danger.
ALLEGORICAL looks to go alright as well, having jumped out well, but may need further than the 1009m based on her mum being Group placed over 1400m+. ALLEGORICAL clocked 48.00s while LOUDUN clocked 47.99s on the same day, but thought ALLEGORICAL was the pick of the two. SEVEN'O'KEVIN can run well but has drawn really sticky with barrier 10 and may be out of his depth here against a couple handy runners - will be better suited in an easier mid-week country maiden.
Often our main play has been beaten by our other BlackBook runners, so we're going to play MESCHEVER with small savers on ALLEGORICAL and SEVEN'O'KEVIN. Would rather lose 0.55 units than see any of our other runners get up!
Overall, the total outlay is 3.50 units for a high confidence play where we get overall effective odds of $2.63 for MESCHEVER to win for a 4.48 unit profit (pending price), while our two savers result in breaking even overall. Shop around for the best MESCHEVER price.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we're putting more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
Total outlay is 3.50 units.
Yarra Valley, Race 4
MESCHEVER ~ 2.75 units WIN @ $2.90 (TAB) or $3.00 (Sportsbet)
ALLEGORICAL ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $7.00 (TAB)
SEVEN'O'KEVIN ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $12.00 (TAB)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +27.19 units at Recommend Price | +60.37 units at Betfair SP
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