top of page

BlackBook - Sunday, 15 January 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 15 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


MOE - Race 2

OTHER

#6 IRISH CRICKETS has had plenty of jump outs so there will be no doubt on how forward he is for his debut and based on his win in Heat 6 on Jan 4 where he was 4-wide without cover throughout but still was able to close off to win and clock the third time of the morning. His previous three jump outs saw him close super into 3rd on Dec 7 over 600m behind Bistro before leading over 900m on Dec 14 but being overrun late and then finishing 2nd again on Dec 23. He’s one to keep an eye on for his debut.


MOE - Race 3

#13 SILKSTAR (1) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Going a touch early here considering it's only her first jump out, but the turn of foot by SILKSTAR in Heat 11 on Nov 28 was superb, the 3yo Bel Esprit filly couldn’t have been more impressive!!! She was a touch slow away and travelled at the rear of the field but was able to get some gaps late and once she peeled out into clear air late, she just went bang and won with ease. Super impressed by this jump out so keen to follow her into another and then into her debut, she looks really smart.

Another lovely bit of work in Heat 6 on Jan 4 by SILKSTAR, not quite as good as her Dec 28 but it was still slick. She doesn’t have a stack of gate speed, again taking a trailing position on the back of a race-fit Berry Bubbly who she tracked the entire way. She finished 3rd, but she was kept under wraps while the two winners were pushed out and asked for more of an effort, while there was a couple lengths gap to Bank Maur in 4th. She’s had the 2x 800m jump outs now, so look for a 1000m race for her debut and hoping she heads to a bigger track so she can finish off like she has been at the jump outs, expect her to be running really well.

 
TELEGRAM CHAT

1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org

2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1


3. If you want to be apart of the chat with everyone, join our "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9


BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Moe, Race 2

#6 IRISH CRICKETS (4) - M Laurie

Low/Medium.

His jump outs have been nice and he has had the 4x of them this prep, so he will be forward enough and ready to go. Like Ben Allen being on board and think barrier 4 is a nice draw to get a nice sit on the leaders and then come over the top late as there should be some pace in the race.


Happy to bet - playing ½ at the $4.40 available and ½ at the SP.

Moe, Race 3

#13 SILKSTAR (1) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

High.

Doubt you'll see too many jump out better than this filly and she looks primed for her debut here over 1100m.

She looks awfully hard to beat with the only possible query being barrier 1 at Moe as she has been running on in her JO's. We think she can overcome that though and should be too good here and winning.


If you're not on yet and didn't get any of the early prices, play late on SP and hopefully we get ~$2.

Last Updated: 8:02am (QLD) on Sunday, 15th January 2023.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 708x runners | 218x winners (31%) & 227x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.06 WIN $2.28 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1139x runners | 280x winners (25%) & 315x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.07 WIN $2.99 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 47x runners | 28x wins (60%) & 13x placings (87%)

Medium Confidence: 98x runners | 40x wins (41%) & 30x placings (71%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 93x runners | 21x wins (23%) & 28x placings (53%)

Low Confidence: 19x runners | 4x wins (21%) & 5x placings (47%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

bottom of page