Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 14 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
BENDIGO - Race 3
He’s been beaten by reasonable margins in both jump outs, but #8 SQUAD looks to be a lovely mover and he looks to be better than his jump out finishing positions suggest. On debut he sat outside the eventual winner Cannonball, where he was just no match for him late but he then won the Listed Redoute’s Choice Stakes at Caulfield his next start. Given time, he was 5th in a Jul 29 prior to his 4th placing in Heat 4 on Aug 8 up the straight, where both jump outs say him lead but drop back over the concluding stages as he was under ridiculous holds and just cruising throughout. He was 2nd and 1st in two jump outs prior to his debut, but suspect they know what they have now and there’s no point putting it all on show just yet. He’s a lovely mover and a big watch wherever he resumes.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Bendigo, Race 3
#8 SQUAD (4) - M, W &J Hawkes
Weird race with only the 4-runners post scratchings. River Frost has jumped out well enough to go well and looks the main danger to our colt, who we think deserves to be favourite. Obvious query is the Heavy track, but doubt the Hawkes yard would be running a 3yo colt with a Caulfield Guineas nomination if they had significant queries. Love seeing Jye McNeil on board with only the 2x rides for the day too - backing him
Last Updated: 8:33am on Sunday, 14th August 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
675x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 212x placings (61%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.28 WIN $2.31 PLC
942x runners | 213x winners (23%) & 259x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.70 WIN $3.10 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):