BlackBook - Sunday, 12 September 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 12 September 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
DONALD - Race 1
#2 BOSS QUEEN was beaten a decent margin in an Aug 12 jump out but thought she worked home well into 3rd. Likewise in Heat 1 on Sep 2, the 3yo filly worked home well into 4th as she settled at the rear out wide early before powering home down the middle of the track under some really light riding. Liked the way she’s closed off the jump outs.
DONALD - Race 9
#2 HUGHES THE BOSS a slick winner of Heat 2 on Aug 25. The 5yo gelding was 2nd in a BM58 first up last preparation, having three nice BM58 runs for a 2nd, 2nd and 3rd. Expect a BM58 first up and might be worth something at odds.
CRANBOURNE - Race 2
#9 BEDFORD ESTATE (2) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
BEDFORD ESTATE was 3rd on debut back in June, but given a let up before returning to win Heat 10 on Aug 17 out wide in nice order. Thought the colt travelled quite well here and can make a winning return second up.
Quite impressive from BEDFORD ESTATE in the end, pulling away late to win Heat 24 on Aug 30 over 1190m quite comfortably in the end. The 3yo colt was away slowly when ridden with no urgency, sitting in the back half of the field under a very strong hold from D Lane before getting some space in the straight and responding really well to some riding. He put them away pretty quickly here. Thought his Aug 17 jump out over only 800m was also classy despite it being well short of his best distance. A Tavistock colt out of an O’Reilly mare, suspect he’ll be better over a mile at least but certainly want to follow.
#12 CUBAN LINK defeated the smart Duty Dynasty in a Jun 7 jump out and backed that up with a nice Aug 2 win. Stepping up to 1000m, the 3yo filly was pushed out late but clocked a really nice time as she finished 2nd in Heat 13 on Aug 16. This latest jump out wasn’t super, but was good enough for us to put her on the watch list for her debut. Worth a bet if she is a decent price.
CRANBOURNE - Race 3
#7 PROWLING (3) - G Eurell
PROWLING looked to move nice in only his first jump out this preparation. The gelding travelled lovely under a hold as he cruised to a win in Heat 16 on Aug 2. He was never asked for an effort but was pulling away late as he hit the line comfortably. He’s out of the mare Great Dame who only had 4 career starts for 2x wins and a 4L 4th in the Group 3 Vanity. Keeping a very close eye on him.
PROWLING backed up his Aug 2 win with another nice win, this time stepping out over 1000m in Heat 15 on Aug 16. He jumped well and travelled super on speed before he dropped the leader (who was ridden out and couldn’t keep up) and extended away to record a nice victory. He looked to do it effortlessly. He is a half-brother to the smart mare Great Duchess and looks like he might have similar talent. Must follow.
CRANBOURNE - Race 4
#9 LA ZUCCA (3) - L Tolson & L Proctor
We really liked LA ZUCCA prior to her debut, but she was just overran by Huskisson after leading throughout. In her return in Heat 8 on Aug 25 over 900m, she didn’t lead them up but instead sat wide at the end of the field before finding the gaps in the straight and really powering to the line with a bit in hand. This is only her first jump out back, but certainly think she has a maiden win in her as a 4yo. Want to follow her very closely.
CRANBOURNE - Race 5
Following #2 CHART BUSTER after a hard held Aug 20 synthetic jump out and his 2nd in Heat 5 on Sep 3. He has only had the 1 start as a gelding, a 4th at Sandown over 1300m where he wasn’t disgraced. He can go alright in a maiden first up.
OUR THOUGHTS / BETS
Donald, Race 1 - BOSS QUEEN
Her jump outs were good without being a superstar. She meets a couple (ISLES OF AVALON and DALEELATY) who have nice first up runs on the board and who will be much better here second up. Drawn well with barrier 1 and John Allen on board for Maher/Eustace, we have ISLES OF AVALON on top as the one to beat (with the blinkers going on) and then this filly second pick.
Small play - looking at backing BOSS QUEEN and if we can, save on ISLES OF AVALON.
Donald, Race 9 - HUGHES THE BOSS
He brings the best last start benchmark rating and has the third best peak benchmark rating in the race. Drawn well with barrier 2 and this looks a nice kick off race, the worry is he just doesn't win (1 win and 7 placings from 15 starts).
He is a good E/W chance, we're happy to play at the odds (~$4+ and ~$1.80+).
Cranbourne, Race 2 - BEDFORD ESTATE (& CUBAN LINK)
Ratings wise, if CUBAN LINK runs up to her debut run then she will be hard to beat. The clear danger is BEDFORD ESTATE - jump outs since that debut run have been super and brings in the second best rating behind CUBAN LINK. We're backing CUBAN LINK and saving on BEDFORD ESTATE.
BEDFORD ESTATE looks like he might be a Derby horse. Bred to stay, being a Tavistock colt out of the O’Reilly (NZ) mare Lovetessa (NZ) who only had the two career runs for a debut win over 1400m and a Group 3 placing over 1600m. She is a half-sister to Queen Of Diamonds (NZ), a Group 2 winner over 2100m. He was a $150k purchase as a full brother to Kristalove who has had 7 career starts for 2 wins, including one over 2000m. If he runs well here, expect him to shorten from the $51 currently available for the Derby (Sportsbet).
Cranbourne, Race 3 - PROWLING
If PROWLING runs to his debut run, he should just win this - around $2-$2.50 looks about right. He brings in the clear best benchmark ratings and with barrier 3, we expect Craig Williams to have him up on the speed and being very hard to beat. Happy to be with.
The one to be mindful of is AUDREY GIRL.
Cranbourne, Race 4 - LA ZUCCA
Have always had an opinion of this mare and think she can run a nice race first up. MAJOR IMPACT is the big danger now third up with some nice ratings from his first two career runs (as a past blackbook runner).
Backing LA ZUCCA and if we can, save on MAJOR IMAPCT to breakeven. Waiting until closer to the jump to get on LA ZUCCA though, would like to get $4ish. Expect one of these two to win.
Cranbourne, Race 5 - CHART BUSTER
CHART BUSTER is travelling super at the jump outs and if he brings his previous form, he is going to be very hard to beat. Waiting until closer to the jump to back CHART BUSTER as the near-$2 odds looks to be rock bottom - hoping he gets out to $3+.
Sha Tin, Race 3 - LORD THUNDER
Just an FYI, he was previously known as YOU'RE THOR in Australia, trialled super in official trial here.
Sha Tin, Race 8 - PROUD DRAGON
Just an FYI, this galloper was previously known as RARE HARE in Australia for M Price & M Kent Jnr and makes his Hong Kong debut.
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