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BlackBook - Sunday, 12 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 12 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


WERRIBEE - Race 1

OTHER

The first three across the line in Heat 5 on Feb 6 were cruising under a hold, clocking the fastest time of the morning in the process. Of those three, Mckeever and Pythagoras have both won multiple races, while the other was the 7-start maiden in #7 CRACKER BELLE. Having her second jump out ahead of her return, she got a lovely run in behind the speed here before getting the gap late to have some room to close off, which she did nicely. She’ll run well first up and look for that Vella x Vella jockey and trainer combination.


WERRIBEE - Race 3

OTHER

#3 IRISH CRICKETS has had plenty of jump outs so there will be no doubt on how forward he is for his debut and based on his win in Heat 6 on Jan 4 where he was 4-wide without cover throughout but still was able to close off to win and clock the third time of the morning. His previous three jump outs saw him close super into 3rd on Dec 7 over 600m behind Bistro before leading over 900m on Dec 14 but being overrun late and then finishing 2nd again on Dec 23. He’s one to keep an eye on for his debut.


BENDIGO - Race 3

OTHER

Shane Fliedner could have a nice 3yo on his hands in #3 ALLOCATE. He was 2nd to the 2yo Celui in a Dec 6 jump out, that colt winning on debut, before then running 4th on Jan 20 where he was actually quite poor. He was given a freshen up and returned for an official trial on Jan 11 where he sat outside the leader in Dinga before being ridden out and extending away really nicely, winning by 3L with a massive further 8L gap back to third. He didn’t have the same sort of space in Heat 2 on Feb 2 despite clearly being the best away, restrained to take a sit along the fence and only getting out really late along the inside but exploding to the front to win late. He looks to have a ripper turn of foot and expect him to be near the lead on debut so he’s one we can follow on debut. He goes well.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Werribee, Race 1

#7 CRACKER BELLE (2) - K Vella

Low/Medium.

A 5yo mare with 7-starts for 0-wins isn't a great recipe but she runs well 1UP and has had some really nice JO's ahead of her resumption, pairing that with a nice draw of barrier 2 over 1100m here, she looks well placed to be running well and looks a winning chance.


We were happy to bet the $10 in early markets (with 18c deductions), so hopefully a few of us are on at a nice price and even at the ~$5 this morning, still happy to bet.

Werribee, Race 3

#3 IRISH CRICKETS (3) - M Laurie

Medium.

He was scratched from that rich maiden series at Pakenham on Thursday to go here where he steps up to 1406m and has drawn beautifully with barrier 3.


His debut saw him finish 3rd behind Gold Revolver (since won two races) and King's Chamber (1st at YV on Sat), which is super form and think he’s one of the main winning chances here as a result.


Expecting a super run and we can be on him. Ben Allen heads to Werribee for only the one ride having rode this gelding on debut as well... good sign!

Bendigo, Race 3

#3 ALLOCATE (8) - S Fliedner

High.

Bypassed a few races over the past week to debut here on the home track and he's drawn beautifully with barrier 8 to get a lovely run in transit.

He actually jumped really well in his latest JO and was forced to go back and in behind horses, so suspect that just let him roll here so he doesn't overdo and he'll be in a handy position.


He's the main winning chance for us and looks a really good bet, expecting a big debut performance!


We were very happy to take the $5+ in early markets following the scratching of Imelda Mayhem, as we said a lot in Telegram. If you're somehow not on already, look to take ~$4+ as we think he starts a ~$3 favourite.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Bendigo, Race 3

#11 AVOID ME (18) - T & C McEvoy

BlackBook jump out comments:

Liked the different approach they ‘tried’ to take with AVOID ME in Heat 2 on Feb 3 as she was heavily restrained in the early stages and forced to travel at the back, which she clearly wasn’t a fan of and once they let her take off around the field approaching the bend, she really got into her work and came home really nicely to get over the top and win. In her first jump out on Jan 23 she just went straight to the front and won with ease despite covering a lot more ground in the middle of the track. She’s a speed filly, so looking for a 1000m mid-week maiden where she can lead and be very hard to run down.


No bet - thought she'd be scratched with the barrier but does come into 12 of 12 - prefer to be with ALLOCATE.

Bendigo, Race 3

#5 RUNPUKYA (9) - H Chalmers

BlackBook jump out comments:

RUNPUKYA put in a nice effort behind Red Hawk in his first jump out on Jan 10, likewise in Heat 3 on Feb 2. He was clearly the best away but was heavily restrained in the early stages and forced to come back and travel wide throughout, coming to the middle of the track in the straight where he came home nicely over the concluding stages, hitting the line strongly despite fighting the jockey for the first half of the jump out. Happy to keep a close eye on him for when he debuts.


No bet - needs an easier race.

Bendigo, Race 3

#13 ROCKLEA (2) - T Dabernig

BlackBook jump out comments:

Two solid jump out wins now for ROCKLEA, the first on Jan 10 over 800m where she got to an easy lead and held that to the line as she wasn’t asked for an effort. She then backed that up with another win in Heat 12 on Jan 18 in similar circumstances, taking up the lead but putting them away as she was ridden out and put under pressure late, opening up a big margin in the end. She’s worth keeping in mind on debut.


No bet - JO's were solid, but prefer to be with ALLOCATE.

Werribee, Race 3

#7 READ MY LIPS (6) - B & JD Hayes

BlackBook jump out comments:

As we often see, it was a case of blinkers on for READ MY LIPS and he went bang in Heat 10 on Feb 4, ridden to out to record a massive victory. Will say that he did have race fitness having had a 5-week freshen up, so considering he was ridden out too, he should be winning like this.


No bet - with IRISH CRICKETS instead, maybe a saver?

Last Updated: 8:42am AEDT on Sunday, 12th February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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