BlackBook - Sunday, 12 December 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 12 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


BENDIGO - Race 2

OTHER

#2 BONARIO might be one we can spec at a price. We didn’t mind this un-raced 4yo gelding’s first jump out on Nov 22 at Kilmore where he sat off the speed and came over the top late under minimal riding, albeit not beating any quality opposition. He’s backed that up with a win in Heat 9 on Nov 30 over 1000m where he sat in behind the speed throughout with the jockey all over the shop trying to hold on as he didn’t have any room to go. He got a gap on the inside and was given a squeeze and shown the whip, looking to respond. He won’t be a confidence bet, but he might be worth a spec at a price as he does look to move alright.


BENDIGO - Race 8

OTHER

#10 DAMASK ROSE bolted in Heat 9 on Nov 23, jumping straight to the front and burning the rest of the field for pace to lead from start to finish and even under minimal pressure, they couldn’t get close to her. She won first up last preparation, so we could see similar first up this preparation but she will resume in a BM58/BM64, potentially at a nice price though.


BENDIGO - Race 9

OTHER

Don’t think #9 STAREDOWN handled the Heavy10 track first up at all. Back to the jump outs and it was a nice win for the 5yo gelding in Heat 14 on Dec 1 over 1000m. He’ll look to resume in a BM64 and will need a dry track to show his best.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

We're going to leave all three of our runners today and have no bets.


We were expecting a bit more of a price about BONARIO, so monitor if he gets out big time (to $30+) but at sub-$20, don't think he's really worth a bet. He does debut at the home track but draw's barrier 10 which might be a bit sticky to overcome.


DAMASK ROSE has only had the one jump out and resumes at 1300m after contesting no further than 1200m in all four of her career runs, which is unusual. She does look a small E/W chance but a few question marks.


The favourite against STAREDOWN, being Moral Force, looks very very hard to beat.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

No bets. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall: +6.76 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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