BlackBook - Sunday, 11 December 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 11 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
BENDIGO - Race 5
#9 SHOVE OVER was super over the concluding stages after being put under pressure late, winning Heat 11 on Dec 5 alongside JESTA DREAMA who also closed well.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Bendigo, Race 5
#9 SHOVE OVER (9) - J Moloney
His latest jump out was absolutely super and a BM64 first up over 1100m is a nice kick off point. He's got some nice form from last prep including a 2nd to Rock Artist, a 4th to Daytona Bay, Jimmy The Bear and Umgawa at Flemington as well as a 4th to El Rocko, albeit over slightly further than this.
Think he can run a nice race and at the ~$5 available this morning, happy to have a bet.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Bendigo, Race 1
#1 CELUI (1) - B Stanley
#6 HELLARA (2) - D Moor
BlackBook jump out comments:
Was surprised when CELUI was scratched from the Merson Cooper Stakes at Caulfield after Brett Stanley made a lot of big comments about this colt in an article with Racing.com. He said that he was better than Sweet Sherry, who was a filly he had that ran 6th in the Blue Diamond behind Extreme Choice and 7th in the Golden Slipper behind Capitalist. He paid $200k for this Toronado colt and he’s now won 4/4 at the jump outs, the latest in Heat 7 on Dec 6 over the 800m where he was just too good in the end.
BlackBook jump out comments:
HELLARA was the pick of Heat 4 on Dec 2, just cruising to and through the line on the inside and doing her best work past the line. She did similar in her previous jump out on Nov 18 and looks a nice moving 2yo filly.
No bet recommended.
Last Updated: 8:31am on Sunday, 11th December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 702x runners | 214x winners (30%) & 225x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.11 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1086x runners | 264x winners (24%) & 296x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $11.96 WIN $2.99 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 40x runners | 24x wins (60%) & 10x placings (85%)
Medium Confidence: 77x runners | 32x wins (42%) & 19x placings (66%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 69x runners | 13x wins (19%) & 23x placings (52%)
Low Confidence: 12x runners | 4x wins (33%) & 3x placings (58%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):