BlackBook - Sunday, 10 October 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 10 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
BALLARAT - Race 1
#11 WHITE STILETTOS (8) - D O'Sullivan
Had an opinion of WHITE STILETTOS prior to her debut as a 2yo, being a Written Tycoon filly out of Into The Mist who was a Group 2 winner over 1600m, but she was a bit disappointing. Returning here in Heat 5 on Sep 2, the now 3yo filly clocked the fastest 850m time of the morning (being 14x heats) where she travelled on speed but out very wide throughout before being asked for an effort in the straight and extending away. Expect to see the baldy face in another bit of work but this was an encouraging return.
WHITE STILETTOS another nice jump out win in Heat 4 on Sep 21. She led them up and was held together until the 200m mark where she was given a push for 100m or so and looked to respond well. Looks to have come back improved as a 3yo and this was another bit of work. Expect her to go well first up this prep.
Clocking the second fastest time of the morning in Heat 9 on Sep 28 was #9 PATRIOTIC KING, a 3yo that makes his return as a gelding following an unsuccessful debut back in April where he started a $3.90 favourite but faded late after leading to finish 8L back in 9th (of 10). Luke Nolan reported that he made an abnormal respiratory noise that day and was subsequently spelled and gelded. He had too much speed throughout here and we’re happy to follow him into another jump out prior to his resumption.
BALLARAT - Race 2
#4 GEORGIE’S PRINCESS was the only runner without a maiden win in Heat 1 on Oct 4, travelling very quietly on the inside to finish 5th following her also quiet 5th on Sep 20. She looks to have something under the hood that we haven’t really seen at the jump outs. Expect her to head to the races now, and she’s worth following first up.
DONALD - Race 3
#10 DENIRRA matched motors with The Billionaire in Heat 14 on Aug 30, a runner that has been quite handy since being gelded. He got out to a lead, but this 4yo mare just tracked him in the straight and looked as though she had a bit left in the tank as she kept up, gapping 3rd (being the 68-rated Teramia) by 5L in slick time for the day. She had a very quiet Aug 16 in 4th, but this was a really nice bit of work. Her last start 2nd to Arroance reads well now too, with that runner winning a BM64 in her next start. Think she’s a big watch this preparation, and with SP’s of $31 and $15, we might get a longer price.
OUR THOUGHTS / BETS
Ballarat, Race 1 - WHITE STILETTOS (& PATRIOTIC KING)
PATRIOTIC KING accepted in three races over the weekend, electing to run here with Luke Nolan on board for 1 of only 2 rides for the day. Expect FLY ON BYE (a past blackbook runner) to be at pretty much peak fitness now third up, especially after his last start 3rd when wide throughout. FLOATING ARTIST has jumped out well as well but is very short.
We couldn't believe WHITE STILETTOS opened up at $23 on TAB. She's now into ~$10 odd race morning, hoping we were able to lock in the $13+ in early markets. Still think she's a good chance to win this and is a nice bet at the price, happy to have a play - low (1-2u) confidence but don't have to outlay a lot for a nice return.
With PATRIOTIC KING around ~$4.40, we can have a saver to breakeven with WHITE STILETTOS our main bet.
Ballarat, Race 2 - GEORGIE'S PRINCESS
GEORGIE'S PRINCESS has had bone chips removed since her debut run when 4th, potentially impacting her performance that day as she was put away immediately following that run. This looks a nice race to kick off in after some nice quiet jump outs.
She looks an E/W chance and happy to be against the two Price/Kent runners and back her at $6/$2 this morning.
Donald, Race 3 - DENIRRA
DENIRRA was poor first up despite being well backed and starting a $2.50 favourite. In this race though, she brings in the best last start benchmark rating at 8.0, the next best is 12.7 while she also brings in the best peak benchmark rating at 5.0 with the next best at 9.6. Ratings wise, she looks very well placed.
She's been entered into a few races this weekend, but has decided to run here. The issue is her price - this is a very winnable race but we don't want to be diving into the ~$2 after her first up run. Happy to leave her at the price and if she wins, then we'll cop it on the chin. If she gets out to $3+ late then we'll look at having a small play but not too keen to get involved.
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