BlackBook - Sunday, 10 April 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 10 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


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ECHUCA - Race 1

OTHER

Comfortable win for the 2yo filly #3 NO LOCKDOWNS in Heat 9 on Mar 16, a $300k MM Gold Coast Yearling Sale purchase who looks to be a nice mover. Only her first jump out.

The 2yo filly #3 NO LOCKDOWNS moves well and has put together some nice jump outs now, winning a previous Mar 16 (purple) jump out ahead of Tapa Capall (who won Heat 4 before this) and closing well to finish a close 2nd in Heat 5 on Mar 30 over the 1000m. She was a $300k purchase from the MM Gold Coast Yearling Sales who looks to have a nice turn of foot.


ECHUCA - Race 3

#7 SAFE SECRET (12) - M Freedman

As mentioned after his first jump out on Feb 7, SAFE SECRET was back at the jump outs with another nice bit of work as he was just done on the line by a race fit Gaius to finish 2nd in Heat 6 on Feb 23 with Sense Of Honour just in behind in 3rd. He’s been given plenty of time since his debut and there has been a few winners come from that race in the meantime with 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 8th all winning since while 6th, 7th and 9th have all placed since. Won’t be a stack of confidence, but he’s one to watch first up in his second career preparation that might be worth a small bet.


Think SAFE SECRET is a big watch first up now. He had 2x jump outs in Feb prior to a freshen up and another two jump outs in March, finishing 3rd on Mar 15 prior to finishing 2nd in Heat 2 on Mar 29 to a race fit Exlover, not to mention they clocked the fastest time of the morning too. He ticks a fair few boxes now ahead of his first up run - he SP’d at $3.80 on debut (where he did fail), has been given time, has been gelded and has 4x nice jump outs under his belt now, so he should be forward enough. He’s a big watch first up and would expect him to run well.


OTHER

#3 MY MONARO was also in Heat 7 on Mar 15 with Tsugaru and also travelled to the line under a hold and untested. The 4yo gelding has only had the one start, but it was on a Heavy9 track and he now changes stables to Ross Pecora. One to monitor as this was only his first jump out back - would expect (and want) a big price first up.


ECHUCA - Race 4

OTHER

#7 QUENTON bolted in Heat 5 on Apr 4, winning by several lengths in the fastest time of the morning. The 6yo mare has always jumped out well in the past and goes well fresh.


TERANG - Race 1

OTHER

#10 HELL HOUND has put together a couple of nice jump outs now, taking out Heat 3 on Mar 21 following a nice 2nd placing from a previous Mar 15 jump out. The 2yo Hellbent filly is a younger half-sister of the talented Group 2 winner in Letzbeglam, so certainly some talent in the family and she’s one to watch.


TERANG - Race 2

#5 HARBIN (11) - L Smith

HARBIN was slowly away in his return in Heat 1 on Mar 8, but closed super over the concluding stages to finish a very close 3rd (0.6L) despite being under no pressure from jockey Jarrod Fry. The 3yo colt is a half-brother to Tycoon Storm (19:8-2-2 with $261k in prize money) and looked to be a nice mover in his return. One to keep an eye on.


HARBIN was mentioned after his official Mar 8 trial where he was slowly away but closed super over the concluding stages to finish a very close 3rd (0.6L) despite being under no pressure from jockey Jarrod Fry. This was dissimilar to his win over the 1000m in Heat 13 on Mar 22, jumping well to go forward and lead from start to finish with relative ease in the end. He’s a half-brother to Tycoon Storm, a winner of 8 races from 19 starts ($261k prize money) so there is certainly some talent in the family. Being trained by Lindsey Smith though, don’t expect much of a price first up but still one we’ll be following into his debut.


OTHER

Didn’t think #9 PENCILED looked out of place in his first jump out back this preparation, cruising alongside Tycoon Beau in Heat 7 on Feb 25 who was under significantly more pressure. He’s been gelded since his debut back in May 2021, so he’s also been given plenty of time. He doesn’t look a big horse but looks to be more of an athletic type. Like to see another jump out but nice return here.

*more recent jump out on Mar 11 saw him finish 3rd behind Umgawa and Not An Option in the slowest time of the morning (16x heats)*


TERANG - Race 8

OTHER

Smart win by the 5yo import #1 MAXIMUS PRIME in Heat 18 on Mar 22. The NZ import has 4x wins and 3x placings from 9x starts, so he’s got enough talent and on the back of this smart jump out, he can go well in Aus.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Echuca, Race 2 - IS THIS LOVE

You're probably getting sick of seeing this filly as she's been scratched from races at Pakenham (Thu) and Cranbourne (Fri), popping up here again. This looks the easiest race of the three she's been entered into and looks as though she's going to be very hard to beat, but expect her price to reflect that.


As mentioned, her form is elite. In her first prep she had the two starts. She was 2nd to Growl on debut who then ran 5th to Extreme Warrior in a GRP3 next start and has more recently won a BM64 at Moonee Valley the other week. She was then 2nd to Niccolite who was then 1.2L off a Listed race next start.

Given a spell, she returned to finish 2nd again. The winner was Hayley who then ran 2nd in a BM64 next start - behind her was Starlea in 3rd (since won MDN by 2.3L and 3rd in BM64), Junko in 4th (since won MDN by 5.5L), Whispering Tycoon in 5th (since won MDN by 3.8L) and Despereaux was 6th (since 2nd and then won MDN by 2.3L). That's a combined winning margin of 13.9L across the 4x horses that finished behind her in 3rd to 6th, which is ridiculous.


That last start run rated +2.9, which is the second best last start rating and second best peak rating behind GRACIE TURF who ran +1.6 last start but that was 300+ days ago as a 2yo. This is a very winnable race.


IS THIS LOVE should win this - $2+ looks as though it would be a gift.


Echuca, Race 3 - SAFE SECRET

We have to completely ignore his debut run where he was simply no good despite starting $3.80. He's now been gelded with the crossover noseband coming off and has been flying at the jump outs, putting together 4x jump outs with a 3-week freshen up in the middle.


This is a winnable race. Only one horse brings in a last start rating below +11.0 being MY GIRL TRUDY at +9.4. Not to mention only 3x horses have a peak career rating below +9.5, so it's not going to take a superstar to win this and we'll be happy to play SAFE SECRET in this race.


He's short at $2, probably would want $3+ to be looking to back as a single but we can play with IS THIS LOVE in a multi to get a nice Sunday fill-up.


Terang, Race 3

We haven't seen much form come from HARBIN's jump outs, which dampens the confidence - from his latest jump out win, the 2nd horse in Pindari Point ran 7th in a MDN at $31 while the others are all still un-raced maidens. He's going to have to do it the hard way here too, with barrier 10 of 10 but the big long straight at Terang should give him every chance.


MIO SORRENTO looked good in a Mar 25 jump out but was beaten a decent margin in a more recent jump out by Fly On Bye. He gets some gear changes and most notably resumes gelded - been well backed too. Our other runner PENCILED has jumped out well enough to run well too and can certainly give this a shake.


This is a race we're going to leave. HARBIN can run well but not sure of the jump out form and barrier 10 of 10 is a bti of an iffy one. PENCILED can run well as well so this looks a competitive race.



BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS

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OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 2.00 units.


2-LEG MULTI ~ 2.00 units @ $3.50 (TAB)

Echuca, Race 2 - IS THIS LOVE ~ $1.75 WIN (TAB)

Echuca, Race 3 - SAFE SECRET ~ $2.00 WIN (TAB)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +6.01 units at Recommend Price | +39.27 units at Betfair SP

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