Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 1 May 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
BENDIGO - Race 2
OTHER
You won’t see many bigger wins than #11 LUVIN’ OUR GRACE in Heat 7 on Apr 19 over the 1200m, with the grey lovely the wet conditions and bolting in by 10L in 1:15.17s. The 3yo filly is a 2x start maiden with 0x placings who comes down to Ben Brisbourne having moved around a bit - she started in QLD but was bought by Trilogy Racing for $30k at the MM Online Sales in December where she then trialled in NSW twice (failing to beat home a runner) and now finds herself in VIC. She’ll have to be a price to entertain a small play on her, but this was a nice win.
BENDIGO - Race 4
#5 GAME TO LOVE (9) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
GAME TO LOVE promised to be a smart filly ahead of her debut preparation but failed to break her maiden, finishing 3rd in both of her career runs. Given some time, she returned to take out Heat 9 on Apr 4 (white) in impressive fashion, clocking slick time for the 800m in the process at 46.17s (vs day’s average of 46.54s). The 3yo I Am Invincible filly was a $450k purchase from the 2020 Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sales and they’ll be hoping she can live up to that price tag this coming preparation.
Two slick jump out wins for the I Am Invincible filly in GAME TO LOVE, taking out Heat 5 on Apr 19 ahead of Gorgeous Prophet for a nice all the way win. As mentioned after her Apr 4 jump out win, she promised to be a smart filly in her debut prep but failed to break the maiden. She clocked 44.20s here that was faster than our overall average of 45.11s, so she’s won in nice time to back up the nice visual performance. She’ll go well first up on the back of these.
BAIRNSDALE - Race 3
OTHER
This is a big stable change. #3 DIO is a 3yo colt that’s a full-brother to Sunlight and Sisstar, purchased for $85K on the Inglis Online Sales in January 2022 after having the 5x starts for 1x placing as a $1.1m purchase from the 2020 Inglis Yearling Sales. His full-brother was just purchased at the 2022 Inglis Yearling Sales by Coolmore for $3m. He was with the Hawkes yard before switching over to Chris Waller but is now with Gareth Andrews following that purchase. He finished 2nd in Heat 7 on Apr 26 over the 1000m, cruising to the line in his first jump out for the new stable. He’s still a colt, so keep an eye out for if they do decide to geld him as that might be the difference, but he’s always shown some talent with a super pedigree so think he’s a lovely buy and can certainly win some races in country VIC.
OUR THOUGHTS
This is a tough one - all of the runners mentioned below are ~$1.70 or shorter, which makes it very tough to play and really we can't be playing $1.20, $1.40 and $1.70 all individually. On an individual basis though, confident that they all should be winning so happy to have an all-up multi of the three and hopefully it's a Sunday FillUp!
Playing the 'Best Tote + Start Price' on TopSport for all three runners.
Bairnsdale, Race 1 - LEGEND OF THE FALL
Was the second favourite against Treotto on Wednesday and looked the only danger prior to his scratching. He now pops up in a very winnable MDN at Bairnsdale, drawn barrier 2 and Ben Allen's only ride for the meeting. He had a jump out in January prior to a let up and then another 3x jump outs, the latest two being wins over 1000m on Mar 21 ahead of Flash Aah (won a BM100 over 1400m first up) and Apr 11.
Believe it was Ben Allen's 22nd birthday during the week (Thursday) so if he's willing to head out to Bairnsdale for 1x ride on the Sunday of his birthday weekend, it must be for a good reason... expecting him to take luck out of the equation from barrier 2, go forward and be hard to catch. Can't see him losing.
Bendigo, Race 2 - BELLE ET RICHE
Well... here we are again. She should not be a maiden, the fact she didn't win either of her first two races is ridiculous and would be surprised if she's a maiden after this race. We finally get a jockey change too with Jordan Childs taking the ride who has 14x wins from 50x rides for Mitch Freedman and is striking at 24% from his L50 rides - he's flying!
The first up run rated +5.0 where the winner in Beneficio then ran 2nd at Caulfield and the 3rd horse in Let Fly won next start. She then ran 2nd second up with the run rating +0.5, which is the clear best last start rating (even the first up run of +5.0 would be the best) and the second best peak rating, so a repeat of either of these runs should just win this. Step up to 1400m third up looks the ideal scenario, the issue is she's very well found in the market.
Can't be diving into LUVIN' OUR GRACE either as BELLE ET RICHE is going to be very hard to beat.
Bendigo, Race 4 - GAME TO LOVE
Super jump outs and it looks a race this filly should win, hence the very short quote. Her two runs last prep rated +8.4 and +8.1, both of which would be the best last start rating of this race and the only one below +10.0, so it certainly highlights how winnable this race is.
Barrier 9 of 11 isn't an ideal draw, but with Linda Meech on board she'll go forward and look to take luck out of the equation as she's done in her previous starts and jump outs. Hopefully she can get a nice spot and not be posted wide.
LARRY OF ARABIA won an Apr 11 jump out over 1000m impressively and looks the main danger, but the 2nd horse in that jump out was a picnic horse that ran 2nd at the picnics in the next start... can't see anything else being a winning chance and still expecting GAME TO LOVE to be hard to beat.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 2.00 units.
3-LEG MULTI ~ 2.00 units WIN @ 'Best Tote + Start Price' (TopSport)
Bairnsdale, Race 1 ~ LEGEND OF THE FALL (TopSport)
Bendigo, Race 2 ~ BELLE ET RICHE (TopSport)
Bendigo, Race 4 ~ GAME TO LOVE (TopSport)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +6.39 units at Recommend Price | +39.91 units at Betfair SP
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BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS
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