BlackBook - Sunday, 1 January 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 1 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
FLEMINGTON - Race 1
#4 EXPLORING just cruised to the line in Heat 8 on Dec 16, the 2yo Brazen Beau filly just going through the motions out wide as she was never asked for an effort but still was super. Think she actually won this heat and it was the third fastest time of the morning, which adds merit to the jump out. She had a trial on Nov 28 at Hawkesbury where she was slowly away and got the head up a lot as she looked for a rails run, which finally came and she then just snuck up the rail to almost steal victory, again cruising to the line. She might have a little motor under the hood and has been solid in her jump outs and trials, so a 2yo filly to monitor.
MORNINGTON - Race 3
#8 LADY TINO closed really well from the back of the field to finish 3rd in Heat 5 on Dec 14 after travelling wide throughout. The 3yo daughter of Palentino was ridden out but really pick up late and was also good through the line. Keeping an eye on her.
BURRUMBEET - Race 3
#2 FROSTWOOD was purchased for $25k at the Inglis Online Sales despite being a 4yo gelding that’s an 8-start maiden. In his first jump out for the new Gareth Andrews stable, the big grey bolted in Heat 1 on Dec 5 over the 800m as he clocked the clear fastest time of the morning. Have to keep an eye on this son of Frosted, nice jump out.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Flemington, Race 1
#4 EXPLORING (3) - J Cummings
She beat Dreamwoman in that latest JO very easily, with that filly since winning on debut at Geelong.
This filly looks a lovely mover and with most of the dangers running on Sat, she is now very well placed. Ode To Joy is the only real main danger, but was happy to risk and back our filly here.
Playing late at the SP, looking for a drift.
Mornington, Race 2
#3 BANGHOLME (2) - A McGregor
His first jump out on Dec 5 was solid when 2nd where he then finished 7th on Dec 19 but the margin/placing doesn’t do him justice as he didn’t have a lot of luck and went to the line untouched. He’s drawn quite well here with barrier 2 and in a race that doesn’t have a stand out, he can run a cheeky race on debut.
Having a ½ stake bet at the SP.
Mornington, Race 3
#8 LADY TINO (6) - J Hunter
Suspect Jerome Hunter has had this meeting picked out for this filly as his other debutants have run and won over the past couple of weeks already, including Tino's Daughter who this filly jumped out alongside.
Barrier 6 is a lovely draw and on the home track is a big positive so happy to be with her here.
Hopefully most of us are on at $10+, but if you didn't see the Telegram message, look to back $8+ this morning for ½ stake and the other ½ on SP.
Burrumbeet, Race 3
#2 FROSTWOOD (8) - G Andrews
The barrier is a bit of a worry, but that's almost all he has to overcome to win this.
He resumed at Mornington on the back of only 1x JO at a very unsuitable 1000m in wet conditions where he ran fairly. His JO prior to that was super and now second up he steps up to 1350m and gets a dry track.
Another Glory has beaten 1 horse home in 3x JO's - don't like. Lumin is on a similar prep to Frostwood but happy to risk her and the rest of the field.
He will run really well here and want to be with, think the money comes late like it did on debut so look to take $2.60+ this morning.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Flemington, Race 4
#13 THE LAST NAPOLEON (6) - K Vella
BlackBook jump out comments:
The 8yo THE LAST NAPOLEON is in good order ahead of his return, winning Heat 9 on Dec 22 comfortably under a hold ahead of a race fit Belle Et Riche and Sacred Palace. He’s had the 31 career starts for only 3 wins and 10 placings, but 2 of those 3 career wins have come second up, so one to monitor first and second up.
Last Updated: 8:05am (QLD) on Sunday, 1st January 2023.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 706x runners | 217x winners (31%) & 226x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.07 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1119x runners | 274x winners (24%) & 308x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.16 WIN $3.00 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 45x runners | 27x wins (60%) & 12x placings (87%)
Medium Confidence: 90x runners | 36x wins (40%) & 27x placings (70%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 82x runners | 19x wins (23%) & 24x placings (52%)
Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):