BlackBook - Saturday, 9 April 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 9 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


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CAULFIELD - Race 4

#3 EYE OF THE EAGLE (1) - J McArdle

John McArdle might have a smart 2yo gelding on his hands, EYE OF THE EAGLE is a 2yo gelding by Alpine Eagle out of the mare Tickle My who was a multiple time Group 2 & 3 winner, so he’s very well bred. He won a 750m jump out back on Feb 2 ahead of some 3yo’s and didn’t look out of place, backing that up with a very smart win in Heat 8 on Feb 16, again over 750m. In this heat he travelled just behind the speed under a hold before pulling out in the straight and showing a super turn of foot to get over the top late, his last 100-150m was super! The only knock on him will be that both of the jump outs have been over 750m, but he couldn’t have been anymore impressive.


We mentioned EYE OF THE EAGLE after a pair of jump out wins back on Feb 2 and Feb 16, and he really can’t do much more than what he is doing and that’s winning jump outs. The 2yo gelding has had the 3x jump outs now for 3x wins, the latest a win in Heat 12 on Mar 30 again over 750m where he was pushed over the final stages, but that will really bring him on for his debut run. As mentioned previously as well, he’s well bred being by Alpine Eagle out of the mare Tickle My who was a multiple time Group 2 & 3 winner. Big watch on debut, he’s a real nice mover.

#5 SUNZOU (7) - S Nichols

SUNZOU was absolutely superb in his first jump out this prep. He had a pair of jump outs at the end of last year, winning on Nov 17 and Dec 1 but didn’t quite get to the track. Given more time, the 2yo colt was a clear class above in Heat 14 on Mar 16, leading from start to finish and moving with ease as he won in the second fastest time of the morning behind Bless Her. He was a $150k MM Gold Coast Yearling Sale purchase and looks a stylish mover, one to monitor for another jump out prior to the debut.


We mentioned SUNZOU last week following a lovely Mar 16 jump out win against 2yo’s. The 2yo colt was back at the jump outs and despite being in a heat that was well out of his class, he more than held his own. He finished 5th in Heat 2 on Mar 23 over the 900m where the winner in Glenfiddich clocked 54.47s, which was 1s quicker than the next fastest heat so he pretty much would’ve won any other heat had he of been in it. He finished amongst the likes of Groundswell, Kahma Lass and even California Longbow (6 wins from 33 starts and $290k prize money) so this was super. Bit of a ‘hidden’ jump out amongst good company, pretty keen of follow him on debut as he looks to have more than some talent.


CAULFIELD - Race 6

OTHER

Slick jump out by the 3yo filly #5 SERADESS in Heat 4 on Mar 18, cruising throughout to win in the third fastest time of the morning with a decent gap to the rest of the field.


#9 WRITEY O’PAL was a very impressive debut winner back in November 2021, defeating Pagan by 1.5L who came out and won next start before heading over to Hong Kong while Mountain Range (4th) and Door To Door (5th) also won their next starts. He has now been gelded, which is a considerable gear change for this son of Written Tycoon as he cruised throughout Heat 1 on Mar 29 following a Mar 15 jump out where he is listed as finishing last, but was extending through the line. He’s talented and can go on with it this in his second career preparation, now as a gelding.


MORPHETVILLE - Race 5

OTHER

#7 WEE NESSY (white) was a class above as she took out Heat 4 on Mar 28, but she did have the benefit of race fitness having finished 2nd on debut up the straight at Flemington. Liked the way IMPACT A LOT (black/white with red sleeves) closed into 2nd place, the 2yo filly really attacking the line in her third jump out having finished 3rd on Feb 28 and 2nd on Mar 15. Adrian McGregor has only had one runner in 2022, so this daughter of Real Impact is a part of a small stable but looks to move well.


Michael Shepherdson has only had the 2x career wins as a trainer, but he looks to have an alright 2YO on his hands with #11 VALLENCOURT winning Heat 4 on Mar 22 as she led from start to finish over the 800m, clocking the third fastest time of the morning in the process. The 2yo filly previously won a Mar 8 trial on a Heavy8 track and looks like she might be a nice mover.


MORPHETVILLE - Race 9

OTHER

Easy jump out win by #8 FLY ON BYE in Heat 6 on Mar 25, clocking nice time in the process. He’ll be hoping to go on with it in his second preparation as a gelding (third career preparation).

#8 FLY ON BYE won a Mar 25 jump out and backed that up with a win in Heat 8 on Apr 1 in the fastest time of the morning. He is flying ahead of his return to the races.


OTHER RUNNERS - NSW

Randwick, Race 4 - #9 PANTONARIO (4)

Form reads really well.. finishing 3rd in all three starts being to Coolangatta on debut, then Fireburn and Revolutionary Miss before Queen Of The Ball and Revolutionary Miss.

Mar 14 (Warwick Farm) - lovely trial off a freshen up, travelling wide without cover but closing super over the concluding stages when asked to extend - won well in a nice bit of work.


Randwick, Race 4 - #12 SWIFT SWEET (15)

Mar 25 (Warwick Farm) - this was some win… jumped well but was quietly ridden early and dropped back to the end of the field, sitting wide throughout and then came wide around the field, around the bend and powered to the line down the outside of the track to win very impressively - she had the benefit of race fitness, but this was very impressive and clearly she handles the wet - half-sister to talented runner Ballistic Lover.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Caulfield, Race 4 - SUNZOU + EYE OF THE EAGLE

Think we keep this short and sweet - very keen on SUNZOU and keen on EYE OF THE EAGLE, so going to play them both. Leaning towards SUNZOU over EYE OF THE EAGLE, but think they can both be really prominent here.


YOWIE is probably the one to beat and deserves favouritism after a nice debut win where the 3rd placed horse, being Over Shady, has since ran 2nd in the Bendigo Gold Rush. EASTERLY looks to be the other hope in this race, but expecting her to be better over further. Didn't think there was much else across the board unless one pops up to win - was happy to risk and play our two runners.


UPDATE (Wed): for those who didn't get any of the $7 or $8 in early markets, look to back ½ (0.75 units) now at the $5+ and the other ½ (0.75 units) on Saturday or at the SP for a total outlay of 1.50 units - can also make use of the bonus back offers for finishing 2nd or 3rd. Very keen to see how SUNZOU goes here, we're expecting (and hoping for) a big debut!


UPDATE (Fri): as expected, we get the scratching of Wee Nessy which gives us deductions (annoying) but it's one less of our runners we have to worry about.


UPDATE (Sat): we're going to put another 0.50 units on SUNZOU to make it a 2.00 unit play overall - we should have locked in $5+, which is a lovely price and pretty keen that he'll run well here. Do concede that YOWIE is the one to beat, but confident our colt will give a sight. We're also on EYE OF THE EAGLE who will show his lovely turn of foot late.


Morphetville, Race 9 - FLY ON BYE

FLY ON BYE is flying at the jump outs, resuming in SA in a Saturday BM60 rather than a Victorian BM58/BM64. He took 5x attempts last preparation to break his maiden, but did so impressively prior to failing at Moonee Valley where he was then tipped out for a spell.


He's drawn beautifully with barrier 5 here and the 1100m first up suits, as does a BM60 in SA. His jump outs were simply too good to ignore and happy to have a small play.



BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS

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OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 3.50 units.


Caulfield, Race 4

SUNZOU ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $7.00 (TAB) or $8.00 (Bet365) *early play*

SUNZOU ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $5.50 (TopSport) *additional play*


EYE OF THE EAGLE ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $14.00 (TAB) or $15.00 (Bet365)


Morphetville, Race 9

FLY ON BYE ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $5.50 (TAB)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +9.51 units at Recommend Price | +42.77 units at Betfair SP

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