BlackBook - Saturday, 8 January 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 8 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CAULFIELD - Race 1

#4 PHILOSOPHER (2) - A & S Freedman

This was one of the more impressive 2yo jump outs or trials you’ll see. The 2yo colt PHILOSOPHER made a mess of them, including a race fit 3yo Brinell in 2nd place, in Heat 6 on Dec 8 in the second fastest 900m time of the morning. He had a trial back in Sep but probably didn’t handle the Heavy track and was given more time after that. He’s a 2021 Magic Millions purchase out of an un-raced sister to the Group placed Peron, so it certainly wouldn’t surprise us to see him target the Magic Millions and although Coolangatta looks to have the race at her mercy, this colt is $101… big watch.


No surprise to see PHILOSOPHER win another jump out impressively, as we’ve posted on Twitter a couple of times. He won his Dec 8 jump out in the fastest time of the morning, backing that up with an easy all the way win in Heat 4 on Dec 22, clocking the second fastest 900m time of the morning. He’s got a very friendly racing pattern, leading in both of his jump outs and even getting the head down in this jump out where he looked relaxed. He’s smart - Blue Diamond?

OTHER

There was something about the way #8 JEWELLERY moved that caught our eye. She closed super to finish 2nd in a Dec 10 jump out, backing that up with a casual but smart win in Heat 7 on Dec 23. She’s a 2yo Lonhro filly out of a mare that was a Group 3 winner over 1600m herself. She looks to move well.


CAULFIELD - Race 8

OTHER

As easy as you like for #10 GINGER JONES in Heat 7 on Nov 23, and he has a fantastic first up record of 5 starts for 1-3-1. Wouldn’t surprise to see that 100% placing first up record continue first up this prep on the back of this work.


#16 WITCHFULTHINKING looked smart as she took out Heat 1 on Nov 22 in her return.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Caulfield, Race 1 - PHILOSOPHER

Anyone get the $51 for him for the Blue Diamond? He’s now into ~$12, so there is clearly an opinion of him. He's drawn beautifully with barrier 2 along with D Oliver taking the ride instead of riding either of the Godolphin runners. He's the clear pick of the race for us.


Keeping it simple and saying we’re very keen to be with him and think he’s quite smart. Expect a really nice debut here.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 3.00 units.


Caulfield. Race 1

PHILOSOPHER ~ 3.00 units WIN @ $2.00 (TAB & others)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +24.93 units at Recommend Price | +56.10 units at Betfair SP


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