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BlackBook - Saturday, 7 January 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 7 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


GOLD COAST - Race 1

#5 BEL AIR (3) - A & S Freedman

We were on BEL AIR first up at Sandown where he was wide but still brave, going down by 0.2L with a big gap to the rest of the field. He’s been taken up to Sydney and went around in Trial 11 on Dec 29 where he was absolutely super. He was ridden with no urgency early to settle last before weaving his way through the field and finishing within 0.8L of the winner as he made up a stack of ground with ease. It looked as though the blinkers may have been on here, so look for that gear change second up, but regardless, he should be running very well wherever he goes.


SANDOWN - Race 1

OTHER

Can’t imagine #6 ALL SASSED UP will be a maiden for too much longer. She had the two starts as a 2yo where she was 2nd on debut to Twin Stars (who then was 3.2L off the Group 1 JJ Atkins) before then running 3rd in a LR race at Moonee Valley behind Crosswinds and Nanagui, both of which is nice form now. She’s been given more time, returning as a 3yo now in a Dec 19 jump out before a super bit of work in Heat 8 on Dec 28 where she sat on speed but did it at both ends, closing super and doing her best work late. She moves well and based on her form, she should go very well first up this prep.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Gold Coast, Race 1

#5 BEL AIR (3) - A & S Freedman

High.

His trial in NSW was one of the better trials we've seen and with the blinkers going on here from his very good first up run, he should be awfully hard to beat and want to be with him.

Ben Melham heads up to the GC for only the 1x ride on this gelding and if he wins, they'll look to back him up in the MM 3YO Guineas next Sat where he's $201/$51...


Keen to be with him here, he should win.

Sandown, Race 1

#6 ALL SASSED UP (5) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Low/Medium.

This is a frustrating one as she's still a maiden but resuming in a BM70... BISTRO bolted in a Dec 30 jump out and is the deserved favourite.


This filly will roll forward and the 1000m first up looks a suitable kick off point, but just wish she was contesting an easier race to cash in. In saying that, we need to trust our BlackBook and we'll be backing her to run well here but playing late at the SP.

Or play late Fixed using all those bonus back offers as it's a small field.

Last Updated: 8:34am (QLD) on Saturday, 7th January 2023.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 707x runners | 217x winners (31%) & 227x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.07 WIN $2.28 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1127x runners | 277x winners (25%) & 312x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.11 WIN $2.99 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 46x runners | 27x wins (59%) & 13x placings (87%)

Medium Confidence: 94x runners | 39x wins (41%) & 28x placings (71%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 86x runners | 19x wins (22%) & 27x placings (53%)

Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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