BlackBook - Saturday, 6 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 6 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


GEELONG - Race 1

#4 GUARDIAN SPIRIT (5) - J Cummings

Godolphin obviously had an opinion of GUARDIAN SPIRIT prior to his debut, his latest run being in the Group 2 Sires’ Produce Stakes after finishing 4th on debut behind some runners with nice subsequent form including Sandy Prince (2nd) and Forgot You (3rd). Spelled since, he returned with a nice Oct 20 jump out before closing very impressively in Heat 5 on Oct 27 out wide where he was quite comfortably in front past the line. Loved the way he responded to some urgings in the straight and really extended, making up ground quickly and hitting the line hard. Can follow him into his first up run in his second career preparation.


GEELONG - Race 2

OTHER

Three jump outs now for the filly #11 NO BABY NO including a 3rd on Oct 1, a close 2nd on Oct 15 and a slick win in Heat 10 on Oct 22 alongside the talented maiden winner Jump The Broom in one of the quickest times for the day. She’s a half-sister to the group winning mare Yes Baby Yes and has shown enough at the jump outs to suggest she can be competitive on debut.

Beaten a long way by the speedy Estoril Park on Oct 8, #13 WANDA’S LEGACY returned in Heat 9 on Oct 22 to go to the line with Plucky Pirouette and High ’N’ Dry, both of who are much better than maiden grade. She held her own in this heat, through and past the line in an encouraging piece of work to suggest she’s come back better this preparation. One to keep in mind.

It was only her first jump out this preparation, but couldn’t help but notice how casual the jockey was looking over the shoulder aboard #14 WOLF SKILL in Heat 8 on Oct 20 as the 3yo filly just cruised past the Tolson runner after stalking it throughout. The two horses outside her were hard ridden as well and she did it very easily. Keeping an eye out for another jump out.

Another nice jump out for #14 WOLF SKILL to back up last weeks Oct 20 jump out, closing well late in Heat 4 on Oct 27 after being slowly away to sit at the back of field throughout and then close well late when asked for an effort with the jump out ran in slick time for the day.


SINGAPORE - Race 6

#5 GOLD CUT (5) - T Fitzsimmons *known as RUSTY LUCK in Aus.

A Sep 2 jump out saw this 3yo gelding, RUSTY LUCK, finish 2nd to Hot Water, who was ridden with a lot more intent while this gelding was ridden quietly - they gapped 3rd. Before that, he won a Aug 12 jump out under absolutely no pressure - in 3rd place of PRIDE OF JENNI who has won two races since and most recently was 2nd in a Listed race at Flemington. In Heat 6 on Nov 11 (green & red sleeves), he was again very quietly ridden to finish in amongst it in 2nd. Have loved (!) his jump outs.


RUSTY LUCK (green) has previously featured in our reviews and again put in another really nice jump out when 2nd in Heat 4 on Nov 30 over the 950m. He showed plenty of gate speed to push forward and co-lead but was just overran late. Feel as though if he pushed along he would’ve put a space on them. They clocked the second fastest time of the morning at 56.40s and this gelding has some talent (and looks), no doubt.


RUSTY LUCK (green) has previously featured in our reviews and again put in another really nice jump out when 2nd in Heat 4 on Nov 30 over the 950m. He showed plenty of gate speed to push forward and co-lead but was just overran late. Feel as though if he pushed along he would’ve put a space on them. They clocked the second fastest time of the morning at 56.40s and this gelding has some talent (and looks), no doubt.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Geelong, Race 1 - GUARDIAN SPIRIT

No surprise to see GUARDIAN SPIRIT bring in the best benchmark rating at -0.1, it was in that last start Group 2 when last though with his debut run rating +15.7... jump outs heading into his resumption here have been super though and it's certainly worth noting that Damien Thornton is booked to ride here as his only Geelong ride before then heading to Flemington for three rides later in the afternoon - that's a big push in itself.


DENIMS has jumped out well at Cranbourne since his debut run, which rated +1.7 and is the second best rating coming into this behind GUARDIAN SPIRIT while SACHEM has the third best at +3.2 following a disappointing debut run.


A few of us should be on at the $3.80 and $3.40 that was available on Bet365 in the early markets for ~20 minutes when we posted on Twitter, with MBL's allowing us to get on to profit a maximum $1k.

He's now into $1.75 (TAB) - $2.00 (Bet365), so if you haven't backed yet, best to wait until closer to the jump and see what price you can get - keen to be with him though and think he's worth a bet. Look at using our Unibet promo as well.


Geelong, Race 2 - NO BABY NO, WANDA’S LEGACY & WOLF SKILL

No real stand outs in terms of ratings, KANNENBERGS ROAD bringing in the best last start benchmark rating but only at +5.3, so it won't take a superstar here to win. RUBY MOCKINGBIRD has only had the one jump out but was good without being a standout. TOM ROCKS was 3rd in a recent trial where 1st and 2nd have both won on debut since, which is handy form coming into this.


WANDA'S LEGACY brings in the second best last start benchmark rating at +7.2, jumping out well since alongside Plucky Pirouette who won at Flemington on Oaks Day. She can improve here and go close.

NO BABY NO has also jumped out well and is well bred. She should be forward enough here on debut but barrier 14 of 14 could make things a bit tricky.

WOLF SKILL has been closing well in her jump outs, but did jump out as if the 1100m might be a bit short of her best distance.


We backed WANDA'S LEGACY in the early markets at $10/$11 and she's still worth a bet at the $8/$9 this morning. We'll then look to have a low confidence play on NO BABY NO as well as a spec on WOLF SKILL. Overall a medium confidence play that one of our three runners will win as they're hard to split and it's an even race. They're all good enough prices to play multiple.


WANDA'S LEGACY will give us the best result at +4.25u while NO BABY NO will give us +2.25u and WOLF SKILL +2.0u.


Singapore, Race 6 - GOLD CUT

This Reward For Effort gelding was with Logan McGill in Aus and known as RUSTY LUCK, sold to Singapore and makes his debut here.


Turns out we can get fixed odds, opening up at $5 on TAB and being backed into $4 currently (at 10am). You can still get $5 on Bet365. No official play here (as we have no idea about Singapore races) but we'll probably have a small bet ourselves - thought he was really smart in Aus at the jump outs so worth something to find out.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 3.75 units.


Geelong, Race 1

GUARDIAN SPIRIT ~ 2.50 units WIN @ $3.80 (Bet365 at 4:40pm Fri)


Geelong, Race 2

WANDA'S LEGACY ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $11.00 (Bet365 at 4:40pm Fri) or $9.00 (Bet365 at 8:19am)

NO BABY NO ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $7.00 (TopSport at 8:18am)

WOLF SKILL ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $13.00 (TopSport at 8:18am)


Overall: - 3.87 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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