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BlackBook - Saturday, 6 August 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 6 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.



MOE - Race 1

OTHER

Hard not to be impressed by the Kiwi #4 RAETIHI, with the 3yo Savabeel gelding winning Heat 14 on Jul 25 as comfortably as you would like. Unlike his jump outs in a previous prep, he wasted little time here heading straight to the front and doing it easy, handling the Heavy conditions with ease and did so under his own steam. It was a lovely first jump out.


All eyes would’ve been on the winner of #7 LITTLE MISS KUBI’s Jul 13 jump out, but if you watch back in the field, this filly closed super from the back of the field to finish 2nd. This was not dissimilar in her 2nd placing in Heat 6 on Jul 27, cruising just off the speed and closing well late, all while quietly ridden and doing so very comfortably. Keeping an eye on where she pops up.


MOE - Race 2

OTHER

Nice win by #8 G’DAY GORGEOUS, leading from start to finish to take out Heat 13 on Jul 25 comfortably. She went straight to the front here while sticking off the rail, where she was then put under pressure at the top of the straight and opening up a nice margin before being eased down late. Treading very carefully though as she did get out to a big early lead in her previous jump out on Jul 11 as well, so she might just be a genuine jump and run horse that struggles over more than 800m, but regardless, she should be a nice price first up and would be worth a bet in a 1000m maiden.


It’s hard to ignore #9 LAGO’S DAUGHTER now, winning Heat 10 on Jul 27 comfortably as she sat on speed and sprinted away from the field to record an easy ~3L victory. This marks her third jump out having finished 2nd on Jun 15 behind a breakaway leader and 1st on Jun 29 ahead of Mango Tango Wine (since 1.5L off a MDN first up). With these 3x 900m jump outs under her belt, she should be forward enough for her debut and she handles the wet well. A 3yo filly to monitor.


FLEMINGTON - Race 3

OTHER

#13 VERANSKOVA was a superb winner of Heat 3 on Jul 25, an absolute class above this field. The 4yo mare ran 2nd first up at Flemington behind Squid Game, coming from last in some slick closing sectionals to go down only 0.1L. Follow her second up, the first up run and this mid-prep jump out were super.


NEWCASTLE - Race 3

OTHER

#6 ANOTHER COGNAC was was 3rd in his first trial on Jun 20 behind Airman (since 1st) and Fashion Legend (since 4th MDN and 1st 2YO SW&P). He showed tremendous early speed here to go forward and lead very comfortably over the 900m but was just overran late, albeit under a hold. He did similar in Heat 12 on Jul 15, pushing forward from out wide to lead and win quite comfortably in the end as he went to the line under a hold while those behind him were pushed out, clocking the second fastest 740m time of the morning in the process. We haven’t seen what is under the hood yet, so there is a slight query there as he has just been a jump and run type in the trials so far, but he’s looked comfortable and can be one to watch on debut.

 
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Moe, Race 1

Will be backing both our runners for even returns - have LITTLE MISS KUBI ahead of RAETIHI.

#4 RAETIHI (10) - E-L & D Browne

Medium.

Debuting here on the back of only the 1x 800m JO, which is a slight query but he is nominated for a Caulfield Guineas and even a Cox Plate... so there must be some sort of opinion about this Savabeel gelding. Backing him and LITTLE MISS KUBI, but will be waiting until closer to the jump to back this gelding.

#7 LITTLE MISS KUBI (1) - C Brown

Medium.

JO's were really nice without being a massive stand out, the latest in good time for the 900m and the Heavy tracks haven't been an issue. The query is Michael Poy with only 1x win from L50 rides...

Should be running well here and she's a nice E/W price - happy to take $6+, backing her and RAETIHI.

Moe, Race 2

Will be backing both our runners for even returns - have LAGO'S DAUGHTER ahead of G'DAY GORGEOUS.

#8 G'DAY GORGEOUS (12) - D Williams

Low/Medium.

Hoping she goes straight to the front from out wide and makes them chase, similar to her JO's. They were nice and the latest was in slick time. Heavy tracks were no issues in the JO's.

Another one we can back both our runners - happy to wait and back this mare closer to the jump with her around that ~$7 currently - looking for $10+.

#9 LAGO'S DAUGHTER (4) - J Hunter

Medium.

She's had the 3x jump outs now, so she should be very forward here especially with the last couple being pushed out. She's opened up big margins and looked to respond on the Heavy tracks, which she can do here again on debut.

Happy to back her, she's our on top selection and $4+ looks a good bet.

Flemington, Race 3

#13 VERANSKOVA (3) - C Alderson

Medium.

She drops back from a BM78 to a BM70 here and we know she handles the straight based on her last start. Mark Zahra on board and she can go well second up. Happy to be with her and certainly taking advantage of any bonus back offers we can get.

Newcastle, Race 3

#6 ANOTHER COGNAC (10) - B Heys

Low.

Re-watching his trials, not completely convinced on him - think he's a jump and run type, which worries us, although it is only 900m here. He will jump and run, likely lead and give them something to catch - he can win, but going to leave him at ~$4.

BLACKBOOK WATCHLIST

The below aren't #BlackBook runners or recommended bets (unless stated), but are those we have notes on and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing (i.e. quaddie's etc).

Randwick, Race 4

#13 CONQUEROR (7) - C Waller

Trials on Jul 8 (Randwick) and Jul 22 (Warwick Farm) were absolutely super - he looks a really smart colt. He's better than BM72 grade and deserves to be a short priced ~$2 favourite.

Randwick, Race 5

#6 LOVEPLANET (10) - C Waller

Jump out over 1100m on Jul 22 at Flemington was absolutely super behind Midnight Blue. Hard held over 800m on Jul 29 behind Alligator Blood and Mr Brightside. He's a better horse than the $23 about him suggests - can run a cheeky E/W race.

Flemington, Race 9

#1 PAS MALOTRU (9) - B & JD Hayes

Jump out on Jul 29 at Flemington was super following a 1100m trial win. He's got good overseas form and this is only a BM84 - will be very interesting to see how he goes first up in Aus. JD Hayes said on a video that he will need the run first up.

Last Updated: 8:26am on Saturday, 6th August 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

672x runners | 202x winners (30%) & 212x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.28 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

929x runners | 208x winners (22%) & 256x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.80 WIN $3.11 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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