BlackBook - Saturday, 5 March 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 5 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
FLEMINGTON - Race 1
OTHER
#6 CRYSTALIST was the eye catcher of the 2yo’s from Heat 5 on Feb 14, cruising at the back of the field before finishing off really nicely under no jockey pressure. He was the only one of the field not getting pressured and was still making ground of them, even past the line. The 2yo colt has MyRacehorse in the ownership, so he will have plenty of owners and as a result, most likely plenty of $ on him. Lovely first jump out though.
Not often does a horse feature in our weekly review twice from two jump outs, especially a 2yo but we #6 CRYSTALIST caught our eye in a Feb 14 jump out at Werribee (on Monday) and then has come back to Flemington on Friday to win Heat 8 on Feb 17. He took a different approach here, going to the front after jumping cleanly to take up a clear lead and kick away in the straight to record a comfortable win in the end. Not quite sure what to make of the two jump outs within 5 days, but he looks to be travelling well and is one we can follow on debut.
The 2yo filly #10 WEE NESSY caught the eye in Heat 2 on Feb 14 (yellow) as she jumped cleanly, led and cruised to the line under a hold. The Snitzel filly was a $400k Magic Millions purchase in 2021 with her full brother going for $825k in 2022’s sale, so there will be some expectation that this filly goes alright. Only her first jump out, so keep an eye on her.
As mentioned after her Feb 14 jump out last week, The $400k Snitzel filly in #10 WEE NESSY recorded a nice win in Heat 4 on Feb 21. She showed that same nice natural early speed again to lead along the rail here before really opening up a gap as she was given a couple of wake ups from the jockey and pushed out over the concluding stages. This jump out will really bring her on for her debut and she’s even nominated for the Group 2 Percy Sykes Stakes on April 9.
FLEMINGTON - Race 3
OTHER
No surprises to see #6 RAINBIEL bolt in Heat 12 on Feb 3 in the second fastest time of the morning with absolute ease. She is a very classy mare that we have a lot of time for and she looks to be getting better with racing. Keen to see where she ends up this Autumn.
#6 RAINBIEL won Heat 1 on Feb 25 comfortably over the 1000m, defeating the race fit Chapel Lane by 1L but never being let off the bridal at any stage and doing it very easily. She’s looking super ahead of a return to the races in 2022.
OTHER RUNNERS - NSW
Randwick, Race 2 | #7 GREECE (8)
Feb 21 (Rosehill) - very impressive and she clocked a very slick 1:01.19s for the 1030m which is the fastest time we have across the last 66x trials over 1030m at Rosehill - she’s a full sister to Group 1 star Loving Gaby and was a $1.2m purchase from the 2021 Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling sales - she cruised outside the leader before responding to the urges of James McDonald to kick away and record an easy 3.18L win - this backs up a slick 900m trial win back on Feb 10, she looks talented.
OUR THOUGHTS
WANGARATTA HAS BEEN ABANDONED - quietly happy with this... now we get GEE BEE ESS in at Sale tomorrow and not against another runner we're keen on. Follow JUNKO, he'll go well next start.
Not keen to get involved at Randwick with the Heavy10 track, but do think GREECE is a very talented filly and she needs to win today to then get into the Golden Slipper, so expect a big debut here. If she runs well and wins, then she will almost be favourite for the Slipper - query on how she handles the track. If she gets out though, could be one to play for a small bet with the bonus back offers.
Flemington, Race 3 - RAINBIEL
RAINBIEL was very good last preparation and coming off a mini break, she can continue here. First up she won a BM78 impressively before finishing a 4.2L 3rd to Lombardo (5th in the Group 1 Moir) and winning a Listed race at Geelong over 1200m. In her last start, which was over 1100m in a Listed race at Caulfield, she was a 3.2L 4th behind the likes of Marabi, Away Game and Parsifal. That sort of form reads well now and should stack up in a race like this. First up she’s 4: 2-1-1, so she goes well fresh and all of her ratings read well too. She’s drawn barrier 2, so should get a lovely draw in behind the speed and should give a sight late.
Going to have a small bet (½ a unit) at a nice price - look to play the bonus backs.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 0.50 units.
Flemington, Race 3
RAINBIEL ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $8.00 (TopSport)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -8.44 units at Recommend Price | +27.88 units at Betfair SP
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