BlackBook - Saturday, 4 March 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 4 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
FLEMINGTON - Race 1
OTHER
A couple of solid jump outs now for #4 MASSIRA, the first on Feb 3 when finishing alongside Princess Duhallow (since 4th at Flemington) and the latest a slick all the way win in Heat 8 on Feb 17 in the third fastest time of the morning. The 2yo son of I Am Invincible wasted no time as he showed some lovely early speed, taking up the lead and cruising to the line as Blake Shinn was very easy on him throughout. He was even extending away late and was good past the line. He’s a speedy colt.
WANGARATTA - Race 2
OTHER
#14 OH WONDERFUL WHY was a good 10L off the leaders in the early stages of Heat 4 on Feb 7 after showing minimal early speed, albeit ridden with no urgency and allowed to drop back to a clear last. The 3yo filly then slowly edged her way forward under her own steam, catching up quite easily before getting to the outside of the track and coming home really nicely to get over the top of Almond Street, who’s race fit and won a maiden in October 2022, with ease. It’s hard to get much confidence in Wodonga jump outs, but you don’t normally see them make up this sort of ground anywhere and add in the fact she won an Oct 4 jump out as well (albeit against ordinary horses), she might be able to run a nice race first up in the country. We’d expect another jump out before she does head to the races.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Flemington, Race 1 | |
#4 MASSIRA (2) - J Cummings | Medium. Thought his jump outs were super and he looks really speedy. His first ever was alongside Princess Duhallow and he looked to improve a stack into his second jump out and think he has her measure. The NSW horses are a ? but think this colt has the speed so happy to play. Blake Shinn is flying at the moment too!! |
#9 CATAHOULA (1) - M, W & J Hawkes | Low. Going back and watching the jump outs of Massira, think this filly has been missed and can run well at a big price. Not sure she's a winning chance as she might need a touch further, she doesn't look to have the sharpness of Massira but think she's a danger so having a saver bet at the $16+. |
Wangaratta, Race 2 | |
#14 OH WONDERFUL WHY (7) - B Brisbourne | Low/Medium. Her first jump out at Wodonga was one of the better jump outs you'll see but it really highlighted her racing pattern and she did the same in her official trial over 1100m on Feb 15 at Tatura, settling last again and coming home down the outside. He was alongside Fresmos past the line in this jump out as well. Hannah Edgley was on board there and retains the ride here, which is a slight query as she will get back and run on but do like 1400m for her on debut. Hoping she doesn't get too far back though and we'll have a bet. Playing ½ now at $9 and ½ SP as not sure if the market support will come. |
Last Updated: 9:58am AEDT on Saturday, 4th March 2023.
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB
