Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 31 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
TELEGRAM CHAT
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. If you want to be apart of the chat with everyone, join our "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Moonee Valley, Race 1 #7 EXTREMELY WICKED (3) - M Laurie | BlackBook jump out comments: A $550k Magic Millions purchase, EXTREMELY WICKED looked like a smart horse as she closed over the top in Heat 10 on Dec 23. A daughter of Zoustar, she just cruised off the speed throughout before showing a lovely turn of foot late when under a hold and she clocked the fastest time of the morning in the process. She’s a nice moving filly. No bet recommended. |
Gosford, Race 1 #9 STARSPANGLEDANCER (3) - B Ryan | BlackBook trial comments: STARSPANGLEDANCER went straight to the front in Trial 14 on Dec 19 and was way too speedy over the 800m, bolting in by 3.85L in the fastest time of the morning. Treading very carefully as she won a trial by 12.16L last prep before running 6th, 3rd and 6th in MDN’s, so she clearly has no issues winning trials.
No bet recommended. |
Gosford, Race 2 #7 LUNA VOLANTI (1) - N Doyle | BlackBook trial comments: LUNA VOLANTI was super winning Trial 9 on Dec 19, leading throughout but opening up a huge margin when put under pressure over the final 200m or so as she won by 2.98L with ease. No bet recommended. |
Final Update: 7:10am (QLD) on Saturday, 31st December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 706x runners | 217x winners (31%) & 226x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.07 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1119x runners | 274x winners (24%) & 308x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.16 WIN $3.00 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 45x runners | 27x wins (60%) & 12x placings (87%)
Medium Confidence: 90x runners | 36x wins (40%) & 27x placings (70%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 82x runners | 19x wins (23%) & 24x placings (52%)
Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):