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BlackBook - Saturday, 30 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 30 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


Very good day of racing at Flemington and then only the one maiden race under 1400m at Traralgon leaves us with a very light on day with Victorian #BlackBook runners. Happy to sit the day out and enjoy it!


We do have a couple of NSW #BlackBook runners at Newcastle - comments are below.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Newcastle, Race 1 - CAPTIVARE (Chris Waller)

Our original trial blackbook comments were as follows:

  • Oct 22 (Rosehill) - reared at the start and lost lengths straight after jumping - just cruised at the back of field before weaving his way through in the straight to somehow finish 2nd and within 3L of a breakaway leader - was 2nd in first trial to Zarastro on Oct 11, who is a nice horse - 11 starts for 0 wins and 7 placings doesn’t give a lot of confidence, but can win the right race.

He brings in the best last start benchmark rating and the best peak benchmark rating, the worry is that he just does not win. We'll let him go around with no plays here, the ~$2.50 is too short for us.


Newcastle, Race 2 - TAVI L’AMOUR (John O'Shea)

Our original trial blackbook comments were as follows:

  • Oct 19 (Randwick) - away slowly from the inside barrier, dropping back to last but coming home like a rocket as she weaved through the field up the straight to make up heaps of ground to finish 3rd by only 1.5L - super trial - she’s a half-sister to Queen Of Diamonds who a Group 2 and 3 in NZ.

She's opened very short but feel like she really should be winning this. Ratings wise, if she runs up to her debut run then she just wins this - that run is the best last start benchmark rating comfortably and it is the second best peak benchmark run. She just needs to replicate that to win.


Going to have a medium confidence bet on her and play her at the Betfair SP and hope for a better price closer to the jump.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 2.00 units.


Newcastle, Race 2

TAVI L'AMOUR ~ 2.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP


Overall: - 4.76 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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