BlackBook - Saturday, 3 December 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 3 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Pakenham, Race 2
#1 MY YANKEE GIRL (9) - J Salanitri
BlackBook jump out comments:
A GOOD YARN won Heat 2 on Nov 14 in the fastest 800m time of the morning but it was MY YANKEE GIRL who just cruised along into 2nd place and look like she come back in super order.
No bet recommended.
Newcastle, Race 5
#4 ANGEL FUND (7) - D Pfieffer
BlackBook trial comments:
A pair of trial wins for ANGEL FUND now with a 16-week spell in between though but she looks like she might go okay. Smart enough win in Trial 20 on Nov 4 but over only the 740m on the synthetic track, so certainly need to see another trial.
No bet recommended - she trialled super, albeit under 800m but this is only a 900m race. She should be running well here but not keen on taking sub-$2 for her.
Stawell, Race 2
#1 ANILLA (5) - B & JD Hayes
ANILLA is a 5yo gelding for Lindsay Park who was initially in Aus, purchased after winning an SA trial by 6L to run in Hong Kong where he ran 2nd on debut but then was disappointing second up. That was his last run, almost a year ago and he now finds himself back in Aus. He had a very quiet Nov 7 trial over 1000m where he was 2nd to Triumphantly (since 6th by 2.2L in a Sandown MDN) with the 63-rated Tallawah and Capistan (since 2nd on debut) behind him.
He then jumped out at Flemington on Nov 18 where he again travelled quietly but was put under pressure late and responded to extend away and win quite comfortably.
Usually the ex-HK horses take a run or two to get going, which is a query but this is a maiden and an ordinary maiden at that. Meetmein Melbourne looks the only real danger but thought she was poor on debut, steps up from 1000m to 1100m and also hasn’t been seen for 6-weeks, so a few queries surrounding her but does draw barrier 1 and likely goes forward.
Thought Anilla would be the one to beat and was quite happy to take on Meetmein Melbourne so going to back him to make a winning Aus debut.
Last Updated: 8:05am on Saturday, 3rd December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 699x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1078x runners | 260x winners (24%) & 296x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.00 WIN $2.99 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)
Medium Confidence: 73x runners | 30x wins (41%) & 19x placings (67%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 64x runners | 11x wins (17%) & 23x placings (53%)
Low Confidence: 12x runners | 4x wins (33%) & 3x placings (58%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):