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BlackBook - Saturday, 29 July 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 29 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


MOONEE VALLEY - Race 1

HEDGED was very well backed on debut but failed to live up to those expectations, being a $2 SP favourite but finishing 3rd by 2.1L behind Tumbling who then ran 4th in a Group 3 at Randwick. He pulled up shin sore following that run so had excuses and was spelled while also receiving the key gear change of becoming a gelding. The now-gelded 2yo son of Capitalist bolted in his first jump out on Jul 10 and then backed that up by bolting in Heat 4 on Jul 17 while clocking the fastest time of the morning in the process. He’s got a stack of speed and is certainly talented, so if he’s over those little issues as a 2yo as he approaches his 3yo year, he’ll certainly win a maiden and likely some more races.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Moonee Valley, Race 1

#9 HEDGED (6) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Low/Medium.

The scratching of Archo Nacho means this is anyone's race now and if you saw the jump outs of this recently gelded 2yo, it would be very hard to not be backing him. He looks to have a stack of speed and the gelding certainly has improved him a stack.


We'll back him but will be ½ staking - plenty of bonus back offers around too.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Moonee Valley, Race 2

#5 ZOUSUKO (2) - J McArdle

BlackBook jump out comments:

A 2nd in a Group 3 on debut followed by two more solid runs in Group races as an earlier 2yo, ZOUSUKO has some nice form on the board now and looks to be in good order ahead of her return. She had a quieter 700m jump out but was on full display in Heat 8 on Jul 19 with an impressive bit of work. She jumped superbly and wanted to run but Jamie Mott restrained her to sit off the leaders, which she didn’t like initially and over raced but once she got into it, she cruised nicely to the line to finish a very close 2nd where they clocked the fastest 950m time of the morning. If she heads to a maiden first up, she’ll run very well.

Moonee Valley, Race 2

#16 WHISTLEFIELD (7) - T Dabernig

BlackBook jump out comments:

A couple of solid jump out from the 2yo’s here. WHISTLEFIELD was a huge winner of Heat 1 on Feb 27, opening up that massive margin over the concluding stages as she was put under pressure.


She has since had a break and 1x JO this prep, a massive win on Jul 18.

Last Updated: 8:49am AEDT on Saturday, 29th July 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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