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BlackBook - Saturday, 28 January 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 28 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Yarra Valley, Race 2

#10 LADY SHALAA (3) - D O'Brien

Medium.

Expected her to step up in distance following her debut but don’t hate that she’s sticking at 1200m and also sticking at Yarra Valley.

Her debut was super. She drew barrier 12 of 12 so despite jumping with them, she had to drop back and as a result was a clear last, some 10L off the leader. She then made her move just before the bend as she rounded the field and rocketed home down the middle of the track to finish only 0.75L off the winner, clocking the 9th fastest L200m of the meeting.

Drawn barrier 3 here, expect her to settle a lot closer to the speed and if she shows that turn of foot she did on debut, she’ll be powering home and going very close to winning this.


We were strongly against Dirty Mind who had 3x ordinary JO's, but he's been scratched and as a result this filly is into ~$1.50, which is un-backable.


We'll monitor to see if she gets out to ~$2 or so, potentially play at $1.80 but she won't be a bet at $1.50.

Last Updated: 8:18am AEDT on Saturday, 28th January 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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