BlackBook - Saturday, 26 March 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 26 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
AVOCA - Race 8
OTHER
#8 TSUGARU was extremely unlucky last preparation where he was a moral beat first up and arguably second up (when lame as well) before probably coming to the end of this prep third up and spelled. The 4yo gelding returned for a nice win on Feb 28 (ahead of subsequent Picnic winner Relyonbella) before just cruising to the line under a hold in Heat 7 on Mar 15 in super fashion. He looks to be back in good order and would love him to head back to a BM58 first up with more luck…
MORNINGTON - Race 1
OTHER
#4 QUINTELLO has returned in good order, closing super to finish 2nd to Lake Tai in his return jump out on Feb 21 prior to winning Heat 9 on Mar 7 ahead of Lake Tai. The lightly raced 5yo mare looks to have returned in good order and can build on her career record with some more wins this preparation.
MORNINGTON - Race 3
OTHER
#5 STARRY LEGEND has been gelded and will be looking to go on with it this preparation, winning Heat 2 on Mar 16 in the fastest 800m time of the morning.
#9 FOREVER FREE burnt them with her pace, leading from start to finish with ease to win Heat 11 on Feb 25 in the third fastest time of the morning. The 4yo mare didn’t even look to break a sweat and went to the line with her ears pricked in a lovely bit of work, especially for a first jump out back.
#9 FOREVER FREE bolts in again, winning Heat 3 on Mar 4 in the fastest time of the morning (16x heats) to back up that slick Feb 25 jump out win. She had Holbien covered here quite easily and there is no doubt she’s very speedy and she’s travelling super ahead of her return. She’d be well suited to Moonee Valley or so first up where she can lead and use her pace.
#10 YULONG DEFENCE was the clear pick of Heat 2 on Mar 1 over the 1000m, jumping with the field but being restrained back to a clear last before rounding them up over the concluding stages under no pressure from Zac Spain to finish a close 3rd. His last start 2nd to In The Boat reads well now with that runner winning a BM70 and then a BM84 by 2L in his next two starts. Can go well in a BM70 himself next start.
OUR THOUGHTS
Avoca, Race 3 - DUSTLAND FAIRYTALE
DUSTLAND FAIRYTALE ran the meetings fastest L800m/600m/400m/200m on debut when coming from the back of the field (despite being held up from the 300m to 200m) to finish 3rd to Ice Pick Nick who has since won again at Moonee Valley.
That run rated +10.7, which is the third best last start rating of the race and she will improve here second up with the step up from 1100m to 1300m, which certainly suits.
She's been very well backed from $7 into ~$4 race morning and this looks a winnable race. We're going to have a small bet as she isn't a specific BlackBook runner but we're keen on the form and the step up in distance.
Big watch on her for Testified (2nd in the race behind Ice Pick Nick and ahead of Dustland Fairytale) who will be a good bet second up, especially if Dustland Fairytale wins here.
BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS
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OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 0.50 units.
Avoca, Race 3
DUSTLAND FAIRYTALE ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $4.00 (Bet365) or $3.90 (TAB)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +6.11 units at Recommend Price | +40.12 units at Betfair SP
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