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BlackBook - Saturday, 25 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 25 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


YARRA VALLEY - Race 1

OTHER

#7 BLUE CHIP GIRL was back at the jump outs in Heat 13 on Feb 1 for her third career preparation now, cruising the the line in 3rd place as she just went through the motions out in front. A $200k Magic Millions purchase, we’ve always been a fan of this American Pharoah filly following pretty much all of her jump outs, so certainly very welcoming to seeing her back in work and we’ll follow her into another jump out before hopefully debuting. She’s some got talent.

We’ve mentioned #7 BLUE CHIP GIRL a few times and while she’s shown talent in most of her jump outs, her official trial on Feb 6 wasn’t great, which would explain why she was back at the jump outs again in Heat 7 on Feb 15 but her start was worse than horrible despite being able to muster speed and close nicely under minimal pressure to finish 2nd, albeit in the clear slowest time of the morning too. Slightly worried, especially with her start in this heat so she’s one to keep an eye on but not a must bet.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Yarra Valley, Race 1

#7 BLUE CHIP GIRL (7) - M Laurie

Low/Medium.

Her trial in the middle was iffy, but her jump outs either side were good, so wasn't completely sure what to make of her on debut but she finds a winnable race


You normally need to be on speed/leading at Yarra Valley but there looks to be a stack of speed so she might be better off using the wide barrier to sit just off them and have that clear air late when the leaders stop. She can't go back from that barrier though, which we're not expecting her to do but if she does, it's over.


We're going to back her here, but ½ staking.

Yarra Valley, Race 3

#11 STARLIGHT GLOW (3) - A Rae

Low/Medium.

He’s had the three jump outs and has looked solid in all without being a superstar, finishing 6th in all of them. The first on Jan 16 saw him cruise to the line behind Ruthless Dame, Humming, The Fortune Teller, El Soled and Greece, which is super form. He then stepped out on Jan 30 behind Dusse and Lofty Strike. He then was seen on Feb 13 where he was well held and closed nicely after settling midfield, finishing alongside Meridius and Flying Temptress.


This is a winnable race and he’s drawn nicely with barrier 3 here - he needs to go forward and if he does, he’ll give a good sight so happy to bet and find out at ~$16.

Last Updated: 8:31am AEDT on Saturday, 25th February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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