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BlackBook - Saturday, 24 June 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 24 June 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


CAULFIELD - Race 2

#8 ORTEGA (7) - M Kent

We were on ORTEGA on debut where he was arguably a moral beat but that race has turned out to be a nice form race with Cobblestone Way (2nd), Dodi (4th), Crown Crusher (5th) and Mi Scusi (6th) all winning since. We then have to ignore his second up run as he had a degree of internal exercise‑induced pulmonary haemorrhage. Given time to recover, he returned in Heat 12 on May 29 for a nice quiet bit of work as he cruised into 3rd place for a nice return. He’s got a maiden win in him so one to monitor.

The Pakenham future stars series has been a very good form reference and it looks like ORTEGA will follow that trend on the back of his jump outs ahead of his return. He didn’t do much in his first jump out on the synthetic track over 760m on May 29, but his talent was on full display in Heat 8 on Jun 12 as he the field up for 600m of the 800m jump out before then putting the field to bed over the final 200m as the jockey gave a slight shake of the reigns. He was a moral beat on debut in a good form race with Cobblestone Way (2nd), Dodi (4th), Crown Crusher (5th) and Mi Scusi (6th) all winning since while his second up run was a forgive as he had a degree of internal exercise‑induced pulmonary haemorrhage. He looks in good order and certainly has a maiden win in him.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Caulfield, Race 2

#8 ORTEGA (7) - M Kent

Low.

He's a maiden with only 2x career runs, one where he was held up and the other where he had EIPH, so it's hard to really know what level he's at. He has looked super at his jump outs and would win just about any maiden (e.g. the one he's accepted for tomorrow) but instead he pops up here in a HCP race... all of these horses have a lot more runs on the board and it'll take something special.


We can't let him go around without something on him though and luckily we get a big price of $15+ so don't have to have much on to find out. Very low confidence, but something on.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Caulfield, Race 1

#7 JEHBENTI (1) - S Nichols

BlackBook jump out comments:

Shane Nichols will be hoping JEHBENTI will be able to replicate his jump out form on debut having won all three jump outs this preparation, the first two coming on May 24 and Jun 5 with the latest coming over 1000m at Caulfield in Heat 3 on Jun 13 where he was simply too speedy overall. They paid $180k for this 2yo colt and he simply can’t do much more ahead of his debut.

Caulfield, Race 7

#11 ALL ABOUT EVE (2) - A Noblet

BlackBook jump out comments:

ALL ABOUT EVE was super in Heat 2 on Jun 15, coming from last down the outside to finish 4th in a superb bit of work where they clocked quick time for the morning.

Last Updated: 8:58am AEDT on Saturday, 24th June 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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