BlackBook - Saturday, 24 December 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 24 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 4
Would be surprised if #12 RICH FORTUNE doesn’t break her maiden first or second up this prep, mainly first up. She was super in her first jump out back, taking out Heat 8 on Dec 7 in very impressive fashion. The 3yo filly jumped well but was quietly ridden to take a sit before making her way through and past the field with ease, her best work coming over the final 200m as she just cruised to and through the line, winning in the second fastest time of the morning. She was a beaten $2.10 SP favourite on debut by Sorel Rising who then went to Flemington and ran a 3.6L 5th behind Elkington Road, which is certainly some handy form when you also take into account the 4.25L gap to 3rd. She’s got more than enough talent this filly and we’re keen to follow her.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Moonee Valley, Race 4
#12 RICH FORTUNE (3) - J Hunter
Scratched from a much easier race on Friday at Cranbourne, being a MDN in comparison to the BM70 here - the stablemate did win that MDN though...
He's only had the 1x JO ahead of his return but it was a super one and despite this being a bit of an ask for a maiden to win first up, we have to be with him. The scratchings certainly help and with barrier 3 and a very light weight (54kg before the claim), he can give this race a shake.
Having a bet, playing ½ now at the $8+ available this morning and ½ at SP.
Wyong, Race 4
#1 WINDSHADOW (6) - C Maher & D Eustace
He debuted on the back of only 1x trial where he ran super, hit the front and looked like he was going to win but he tired late and was overran to finish 3rd, albeit only 0.3L. The 2nd horse that day was Victory Lane, who beat Step Aside on Wednesday at Warwick Farm (much to our dislike), which is nice form.
He drops back from 1200m to 1100m and is drawn lovely with barrier 6. Louise Day jumps back on board having rode him in the trial win prior to the debut and this looks a nice race for him second up.
He was a $900k purchase from the Magic Millions back in 2020 too...
Think the $3.20+ available is a nice price and he's going to be hard to beat, so happy to have a bet on him.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Moonee Valley, Race 4
#4 PHILOSOPHER (4) - E Jusufovic
BlackBook jump out comments:
PHILOSOPHER has been scratched from 3x races over the past couple of weeks, so potentially a slight hiccup for the colt there that’s prevented him from finally making his debut for EJ. He was back doing what he does best though, winning jump outs as he took out Heat 5 on Dec 19 with ease. An $18k Inglis purchase, he’s a speedy colt.
No bet recommended.
Last Updated: 8:47m on Saturday, 24th December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 706x runners | 217x winners (31%) & 226x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.07 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1110x runners | 271x winners (24%) & 303x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.21 WIN $3.01 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 44x runners | 26x wins (59%) & 12x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 84x runners | 35x wins (42%) & 22x placings (68%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 80x runners | 18x wins (23%) & 24x placings (53%)
Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):