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BlackBook - Saturday, 22 October 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 22 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.


MOE - Race 1

OTHER

Following his jump out win on Aug 26 ahead of Bellinger, #3 PORT ALBERT took out Heat 2 on Sep 9 ahead of the very speedy Philosopher and It’sourtime in the fastest time of the morning. It looked like D Oliver was on board here, jumping cleanly to get a good spot forward along the rail and go to the line under a hold, even going on with it past the line. He has handy form from his debut prep having 3rd on debut at Caulfield in the Redoute’s Choice Stakes before finishing 2nd to the undefeated Hell Hound, but has had the key gear change of now being a gelding and on the back of these 2x jump out wins, this son of Sooboog can make a winning return.


ST ARNAUD - Race 3

OTHER

It was a nice return jump out for #10 A LITTLE DEEP on Sep 12 and she backed that up with another nice bit of work in Heat 7 on Oct 4 as she stepped up the 1000m. The Deep Field filly sat midfield but 3-4 wide throughout this heat, cruising in the middle stages before edging her way up the leaders as they approached the bend, going to the line under a hold. She was pipped on the line by a stablemate, but she easily could’ve got the head in front if she was ever asked to extend. A $250k purchase back in 2021 with her full-sister recently purchased for $310k, she moves well and will be competitive on debut.'


MOONEE VALLEY - Race 11

OTHER

This was a super jump out from #9 SEPTEMBER RUN. We aren’t one to normally highlight Group runners as they should be jumping out well, but the work of this mare in Heat 3 on Oct 7 as super as she closed over the top of In The Congo etc. under a ridiculous hold and past the line she couldn’t even be held up. She’ll likely go to the Manikato Stakes from here where she has a second up record of 6:3-0-0 and is a Group 1 winner over 1200m at the Valley (William Reid earlier this year) so expect a big performance.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Moe, Race 1

#3 PORT ALBERT (8) - N Ryan

High.

If he runs to any of his first three career runs, he simply should just win this. Barrier 8 of 9 isn't ideal, but it will mean he isn't trapped in the run and will certainly get clean air when he needs it - he'll be ridden like the best horse in the race, which he is. The Maher horse was the only danger but he's come out so this gelding is the best of the day - awfully hard to beat.

Obviously $1.45 is now short so not diving into that for singles - want $1.80+ to be backing.

St Arnaud, Race 3

#10 A LITTLE DEEP (2) - C Maher & D Eustace

Medium.

Scratched from Ballarat on Thursday (with barrier 10) to run here and she's drawn beautifully with barrier 2 - she should go forward and be hard to catch. The $3+ looks about right.


OLD MATE SMITHY is the danger for us, his latest JO was quite nice and always mindful of the country trainers - might be worth a saver.

Moonee Valley, Race 11

#9 SEPTEMBER RUN (9) - C Waller

Low/Medium.

She ran the meetings 10th fastest L400m and 5th fastest L200m first up in the Moir Stakes over 1000m where she was never going to win (she’s had 5x starts at 1000m for 0x wins). At 1200m though she's won the Coolmore and the William Reid earlier this year (after finishing 4th last year) as well as finishing 3rd in a Sangster and Newmarket. She has a second up record of 6:3-0-0 and after this super jump out, she looks to be flying and can run a nice E/W race at $15/$4.


D Oliver takes the ride from K McEvoy following the change of meeting, certainly a handy replacement.

2YO PREVIEW - MOONEE VALLEY, RACE 1

ARKANSAW KID beat home OPTUME (2nd) and CAPPER THIRTYNINE (4th) in a Oct 7 jump out and looked slick in doing so. ARKANSAW KID then jumped out on Oct 14 and clocked 49.66s in his win, while OPTUME also jumped out on Oct 14 a couple of heats later when 2nd with the winner clocking 48.22s.


COUNT YOUR PENNIES looks big overs here. She was 2nd in a Aug 25 jump out to the 3yo Abeona (since 9th and 6th in MDN’s) before looking super in an official trial against the other 2yo’s on Sep 5 with Ethan Brown in the saddle, who sticks here. She clocked 47.84s, which was below average for the morning but she won quite stylishly when leading the whole way. Her more recent jump out on Oct 4 was just a tick over to put the final polish on for her debut. She looks the likely leader and it’ll be interesting to see what she might have under the hood.


Can’t knock SAILOR’S RUM in either of his jump out wins on Sep 28 and Oct 12 - Jamie Kah in the saddle from barrier 1 should see him push forward and either hold that spot, or get a nice sit in behind them. He closed over the top in his first jump out and led along the rail in his latest jump out, so he looks tactical.


James McDonald is airborne and he rides MEXICO here who comes down from Sydney following a Randwick trial back on Sep 19, so there is a slight query on how ready to go he is here considering that was over a month ago. He does get the blinkers on from this trial though, which is sure to sharpen him up as well.


Numbers:

1. ARKANSAW KID

2. COUNT YOUR PENNIES

3. MEXICO

4. SAILOR’S RUM


Happy to be backing ARKANSAW KID (~$3) and COUNT YOUR PENNIS (~$17+) for even returns. It's not a great race and there wasn't any 'stand outs', but were certainly horses you could put a line through. Not a big outlay, but happy to have a play and something to look at for all those promo's (e.g. TAB have bonus back if your horses loses in R1 and BETR have double bonus back for 2nd to 5th, etc.)


Last Updated: 7:58am on Saturday, 22nd October 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 694x runners | 211x winners (30%) & 222x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.17 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1035x runners | 245x winners (24%) & 283x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.24 WIN $3.03 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 29x runners | 19x wins (66%) & 6x placings (86%)

Medium Confidence: 57x runners | 24x wins (42%) & 16x placings (70%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 45x runners | 6x wins (13%) & 15x placings (47%)

Low Confidence: 8x runners | 2x wins (25%) & 2x placings (50%)

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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