BlackBook - Saturday, 22 January 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 22 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
YARRA VALLEY - Race 1
#5 SIGNAL (1) - M Laurie
Three jump outs now for SIGNAL, the only horse to beat him being the talented Unflinching (who you’d expect to win jump outs) as he finished 2nd in Heat 5 on Jan 12 with a nice 2-3L gap to 3rd where the clocked 46.60s, the fastest time of the morning. He won a 700m jump out on Dec 22 and then a 750m jump out on Dec 30, so he certainly has some speed and talent. Expect the 3yo Danerich gelding to be prominent on the speed on debut, so hopefully he can draw low in a country maiden where we’d be keen to follow him.
YARRA VALLEY - Race 2
#2 CRACKHORN and the recent BM64 winner Cosmic Rhapsody went stride for stride as they closed from the back in Heat 4 on Dec 23, just missing Strike Eagle who led from start to finish. The 3yo gelding is resuming off a 12-week let up following three solid runs where he’s threatening to break his maiden.
#13 KENSINGTON ROAD backed up a solid Dec 20 win with an all the way win in Heat 13 on Jan 10 as he stepped out to 1000m. He was hard held throughout and travelled comfortably. Looks to be one that might have come back improved following an okay debut prep.
Yarra Valley, Race 1 - SIGNAL
SEYDOUX was in his jump outs, where SIGNAL looked to have him covered, and also was in this race but decided to go around at Flemington on Friday where he ran 5th behind a smart one in Madame Du Gast.
There isn't much quality from the raced besides NEVERSTANDINGSTILL who brings in the best last start rating at +7.9 and there isn't really anything else close to her. She ran well on debut with a big 1.6L gap to 3rd and a further 2.1L gap back to 4th - expect her to go forward from barrier 2. The only other real danger looks to be BABETTE after a nice Dec 15 jump out but a lot less convincing jump out on Dec 30 when she stepped up to 1000m.
SIGNAL is drawn perfectly with barrier 1 to push forward, lead and get a lovely run, which is perfect for a tight turning Yarra Valley track over only 1009m. The key is that the winkers go on for the debut but weren't on in the jump outs - generally we'd have a query on fitness as he had a 700m and a 750m jump out but the latest 800m jump out when just behind Unflinching should top him off.
He's the top winning chance ahead of NEVERSTANDINGSTILL with BABETTE the third pick. The price for SIGNAL is putting us off a bit, so we're going to play the SP for a low-medium confidence bet. We also have a Bonus Back offer (for finishing 2nd or 3rd) with UniBet up to $50 for SIGNAL, which is worth taking and you can bet here.
Yarra Valley, Race 2
CRACKHORN is a very interesting runner here. His jump out with Cosmic Rhapsody was really nice and he just ran 2nd in a BM70 up the straight at Flemington yesterday. In typical Archie Alexander fashion, he was ridden out in his latest jump out on Jan 5 and didn't look all that great, however, the horse that was pushed out just as much just behind him was Arktika, who won by over 2L on debut at Pakenham, which is super jump out form.
Was expecting KENSINGTON ROAD to be scratched, especially as he still doesn't have a jockey at the time of writing this and doing the form.
MATSUAKZE deserves to be near the top of the market having beaten home subsequent maiden winner Grinzinger Prince in a Jan 10 jump out. SIDE BET has some nice form having ran 2nd at both career runs and looks a good chance here as well.
Going to leave this race - no bets.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 1.50 units.
Yarra Valley, Race 1
SIGNAL ~ 1.50 units WIN @ Betfair SP
*We have a Bonus Back offer with UniBet for this runner (up to $50), you can bet here.*
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +25.89 units at Recommend Price | +63.07 units at Betfair SP
When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.
PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY
Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!
She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!
We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...