BlackBook - Saturday, 20 November 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 20 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
TATURA - Race 2
OTHER
#9 GOLD GLAMOUR is an interesting one. She was a very impressive winner of Heat 3 on Nov 3 in slick time but her previous jump outs were only fair, sitting in behind them on Sep 28 before a poor Oct 12 jump out. One to keep an eye on when she debuts as this latest jump out was very good.
BALLARAT - Race 6
OTHER
Very excited to see where #8 MARABI can get to this preparation. The 5yo mare is 3 wins from 3 starts with a combined winning margin of 15.5L… she’s very talented and her win in Heat 5 on Oct 11 was a lovely return.
Big win for #11 BRAZEN BRANDO in Heat 13 on Nov 16, albeit with race fitness considering he won a BM64 by 3L only 2 weeks prior to this. A ridden out Mystery Diamond tried to keep up while there was a huge gap to 3rd.
BALLARAT - Race 10
OTHER
Speaking of big maiden winners, #5 TRANSPLANT was a 6L maiden winner first up last preparation before running 4th in a BM70 and then being sent for a spell. She returned to bolt in Heat 4 on Nov 3, albeit in slowish time for the day but she did it easy enough in only her first jump out back.
OUR THOUGHTS
Tatura, Race 2 - GOLD GLAMOUR
Ratings wise, neither of our two runners will have to be superstars to win this with the best last start benchmark rating being +9.3 (ZARINA BAY) and the best peak benchmark rating being +7.0 (ZARINA BAY). VIKING REBEL gets the winkers and his last start 4th to Unflinching reads very well now with 2nd and 3rd since winning. They deserve to be the top two in the market.
We're very glad to see one of our runners scratched (GAME TO LOVE), leaving us with GOLD GLAMOUR who has been scratched multiple times, searching for the right race to kick off in but draw's a wide-ish barrier again with barrier 9. They both came from the same heat on Nov 3 at Caulfield where GOLD GLAMOUR was clearly the better of the two.
That latest jump out was really nice and think she's worth a low confidence bet on the back of it at the $5+ available.
Ballarat, Race 3 - ONLYHEREFORTHEBEER
He jumped out at Avoca on Tuesday in Heat 14 and won well to back up his previous Ballarat jump out and pops up here on debut at the home track. He's jumped out just as well as any of the others here and we thought he was over the odds at $13 in early markets. He was an $80k Magic Millions purchase.
Archie Alexander has only two riders with over 100 rides, being Declan Bates with 220 rides and Jordan Childs with 206 rides - so they're clearly his preferred riders. Jordan Childs takes the ride here and is striking at 20% WIN and 43% PLC with a +40.8% P.O.T for Archie. Good stats from a big sample size.
We were happy to take the $12-$13 in early markets, with him now at $11 race morning and still looks a bet at that price. Look to take advantage of our UniBet promo as well for a bit of insurance.
Ballarat, Race 6 - MARABI & BRAZEN BRANDO
Ratings wise, BRAZEN BRANDO is going to need to improve a stack to win this against an up and coming star in MARABI but at $201, certainly had worse $1 - $2 bets.
No official bets, but we're going to have (legit) $2 or so on BRAZEN BRANDO personally at the price - hoping a few of us got the $201 on TopSport throughout Friday, but still think it's worth a couple $ at the $101 available now. Expecting MARABI to be very hard to beat but not keen to get involved at the price.
Ballarat, Race 10 - TRANSPLANT
TRANSPLANT can run well her first up, bringing in the third best last start benchmark ratings at -4.6 from her last start 4th in a BM70. Her first up Maiden win rated +3.7. Scratched from Moonee Valley on Friday to run here.
No bets - more of an FYI if playing (Quaddie's etc.)
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 1.50 units.
Tatura, Race 2
GOLD GLAMOUR ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $5.00 (TopSport | Sat 8:43am)
Ballarat, Race 3
ONLYHEREFORTHEBEER ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $14.00 (SportsBet | Thu 8:30am)
Overall: +7.98 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).
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