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BlackBook - Saturday, 19 November 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 19 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


PENSHURST - Race 3

OTHER

Loved the work of #2 IS IT ME late in Heat 4 on Nov 9, especially past the line with the jockey having a cheeky look over the shoulder as he ran past Honour De Hero and Playing It Safe with relative ease, both of whom are previous winners. He was midfield but wide throughout this heat so very encouraging to see him full of running still late over the 900m, especially past the line which is something we always love. He had the two previous Warrnambool jump outs on the synthetic tracks on Oct 19 and Nov 2, which are hard to gauge but that second one was very pleasing to the eye as well. A 3yo son of Iffraaj that was a $40k buy, he looks like a nice mover and while he might get over some distance, still keen to follow him on debut at the very least.


TATURA - Race 4

OTHER

Lovely win by #2 FOXPATH in Heat 3 on Nov 10. He was slowish out of the gates but showed nice early speed to take up the lead and kicked away late to record a soft victory in the end under minimal jockey pressure, recording the second fastest time of the morning in the process. He closed well in a previous Oct 27 jump out where he was very quietly ridden, finishing an easy 5th. He’s a 5yo horse by Foxwedge, out of Pathways who was owned by Mr R J Patterson as well, so he must be a home bred and he’s certainly been very patient with this guy and he it looks like it might pay off.


GOSFORD - Race 3

OTHER

#4 RICHON is an intriguing runner, coming from Trial 6 on Nov 8 where he finished 3rd but he is still only a maiden and the trial was open class, so he was in amongst much better company. He was good through and past the line here as well, backing up his Oct 28 trial where he looked a class above after travelling wide throughout. He was 2nd to Promitto on debut (who won a Group 2 at his next start) before running in the Group 2 Todman where he had a slow recovery and subsequently spelled. He’s come back in nice enough order and will go well in almost any maiden first up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence

Penshurst, Race 3

#2 IS IT ME (6) - D Bowman

High.

Thought his latest jump out was super and on the back of that, was happy to be with him here to find out. Drawn beautifully with barrier 6 and Melissa Julius on board, he should get a nice trail into this and with no standouts in this race, he looks well placed to be going well on debut. Quite keen to be with him here.


We were hopefully able to lock in the $4.80 (or at least $3.50+) that was available in the early markets for ages when messaged on Telegram. If you didn't, wait until closer to the jump and see if we can get a better price but keen to be on him regardless of price.

Tatura, Race 4

#2 FOXPATH (1) - C Cassar

Low/Medium.

He put together a nice bit of work in his latest jump out and having drawn barrier 1 here, he will need to show that early speed he showed in his latest jump out to boot up and take a spot, especially over only 1000m. He looks a winning chance, but do concede that Tan Tat Magic is the on top pick and the one to beat here.


We recommended an early ½ play at the $6 in early markets, and going to just leave him as a ½ play to find out how he goes as he's a winning chance, just going to be hard to beat the fav. If you're not on yet, can back at the ~$5.50 still this morning.

Gosford, Race 3

#4 RICHON (4) - P Robl

Medium.

He has trialled super and looks well placed here having drawn beautifully with barrier 4. He's the one to beat here and happy to be with him as the main winning chance in this race.


We sent through a message yesterday to take the early odds at $4.40 on Bet365 if you could get on. He was quickly backed into sub-$3 so if you're not on yet, look to play ½ this morning at $2.30+ and the other ½ on the SP (hoping to get ~$3 late).

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Ballarat, Race 3

#11 SASSY BOOM (9) - D O'Brien

WatchList jump out comments:

A 2yo running one of the top times for the morning is always impressive, SASSY BOOM winning Heat 8 on Nov 11 in the third fastest time of the morning. The 2yo daughter of Spirit Of Boom was speed in the early stages, taking up the lead as she held that too and through the line to win quite comfortably. A $155k Magic Millions purchased that’s owned solely by females, we expect another jump out but watch for her going towards the Magic Millions…


Confidence: Low/Medium.

Race comments: Not usually a fan of the 1x jump out into the debut, but she showed a stack of speed and her work past the line was super, she was being pulled up hard. This is a very open race, like most of the 2YO races are, but she can run well and suspect she's on that Magic Millions path.

Going to back her but ½ staking and playing late as we may get a better price closer to the jump.

Kembla Grange, Race 4

#14 WAY TO THE STARS (1) - M Smith

WatchList jump out comments:

WAY TO THE STARS had the race fitness from his first up win over 1000m on Oct 19, but he was a class above in Trial 7 on Nov 4, clocking the fastest time of the morning and the fastest time we have recorded at Warwick Farm over the past 3x years for all trials between 790m and 800m, which is deadset flying. He’s a speed horse and looks to be flying this prep.


Confidence: Low (no bet).

Race comments: He's been scratched a few times searching for the right race, and this might be it. Tim Clark on board from barrier 1, he will jump and lead.

We won't be backing him but a win wouldn't surprise so if you did like his trials, wouldn't talk you out of it.

Last Updated: 8:06am on Saturday, 19th November 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 698x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1060x runners | 254x winners (24%) & 290x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.11 WIN $3.01 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 35x runners | 23x wins (66%) & 7x placings (86%)

Medium Confidence: 66x runners | 28x wins (42%) & 17x placings (68%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 56x runners | 9x wins (16%) & 19x placings (50%)

Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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