BlackBook - Saturday, 19 February 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 19 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
BENDIGO - Race 1
OTHER
#3 PRADO by name, but certainly doesn’t look to be a Toyota Prado on the track (lol). The 2yo colt should a really impressive turn of foot late to come over the top and win Heat 13 on Feb 2. He jumped well, but was taken to the rear of the field and just cruised throughout before popping out late in the straight and powering over the top. He had a Flemington jump out back on Nov 1 where he won ahead of an un-raced 3yo and he looks to be a really nice mover. He’s by Extreme Choice, who are flying at the moment, and was a $170k Magic Millions purchase where his full-brother was sold earlier this year for $475k. Expecting another jump out, but this was super.
*had a jump out up the straight at Flemington on Feb 11 where he was last and left a little to be desired...*
FLEMINGTON - Race 4
OTHER
Looks as though the Corstens have a nice colt on their hands. A $300k Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling purchase being a full-brother to stablemate Icantoo, #7 CASTILLIAN looks to be a really nice moving 2yo colt with some talent. He won a Jan 21 jump out with ease, cruising throughout whilst hard held. He has then backed that up with in Heat 8 on Feb 4 where he didn’t win, but closed super from the back to finish 2nd and was making ground past the line. He looks to be a talented colt and no surprise to see him hold a Blue Diamond nomination.
Ozzie Kheir’s #15 ZENNZELLA was an impressive winner of Heat 4 on Feb 1, well held throughout to back up her well held 3rd in a previous Jan 24. In saying that, she clocked a really slow time that was almost 1s slower than the next slowest time of the morning. Slight query in that regard, but she is by Snitzel and was a $350k Magic Millions purchase where she looked to be a nice mover here.
FLEMINGTON - Race 6
OTHER
#12 CORONA LAD took it up to the Group 1 placed and recently gelded Grandslam in Heat 19 on Feb 7 over the 1200m, and he certainly looked to hold his own. He has some residual fitness having come off a 7-week freshen up from his two wins from two career runs, but this was Grandslam’s third jump out or trial. Keep an eye out for this gelding if he continues to go through the grades, this was nice.
OUR THOUGHTS
As mentioned on Friday, it's been a frustrating year and Chart Buster continued the run - in 2022 we've now had 10x tips SP at $2.20 or less for only 1x winner... which is just ridiculous (it's resulted in 18.50 units lost) - we're getting the prices and making good bets, just not getting the winners. Just wanted to put a note out that we're feeling the frustration as every unit play is exactly what we back personally (to the $), so we're certainly looking for a change of luck (please)!
Bendigo, Race 1 - PRADO
Deserved favourite and our top pick for the race, looks hard to beat but in saying that, won't be getting involved at ~$1.80. That latest jump out up the straight at Flemington wasn't the greatest despite that 750m Balnarring jump out being super - just some slight queries and generally like to see them do it over 1000m or 800m+ at least, which he hasn't quite done. Few too many queries for us to be playing with any confidence at that price, but he's the one to beat.
Gosford, Race 1 - OMNI MAN
We didn't watch any of the NSW trials throughout January (as we've only just started in Feb), but this colt we had marked down from Trials back in July/August last year and it looks as though he's trialling just as well as he did then. He certainly would've been a highlighted BlackBook horse if we were watching January's trials. He was lame on debut, fading late over 1100m on a Heavy9 track at Randwick so happy to forgive that run and re-assess him here as he's a very well bred 3yo colt being a half-brother to She Will Reign and Time To Reign.
In his first trial on Jan 4 he beat home Devil's Throat over 900m with a 4L gap back to 3rd, that runner then went to the maiden at the Magic Millions and ran 2nd before running 2nd again since. He then trialled over 1030m on Jan 17 and won by 3.7L with ease, clocking 1:01.70s which is super slick.
He's had a one-month freshen up prior to resuming here in a Gosford maiden over 1000m where the best career rating of any horse in the race is +5.6 while his debut run (when lame) rated +2.3. It's a small field so really he should just go straight to the front and win.
The sole query is that he gets front bar plates on for the first time, so really not sure what to make of that. Won't be diving in at the ~$1.35, but he's one for the multi's as he really should just be winning this.
Flemington, Race 4 - CASTILLIAN
Jump outs were absolutely super and not quite sure why he is such a big price - for those interested in the jockey bookings, it looked as though Ethan Brown rode him in his first JO but Mark Zahra was on board for his latest JO on Feb 4 with Ethan Brown riding the stablemate in the same heat, and now Ethan Brown riding here on debut.
He seems well over the odds and was happy to have a bet at the $20+ available in early markets - if possible, look to take advantage of the bonus back offers for some insurance. If you didn't get the $20+ in early markets, you can still play him at $15+ currently but might be best to wait until closer to the jump and back him then.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 0.50 units.
Flemington, Race 4
CASTILLIAN ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $21.00 (Bet365 or Sportsbet) *early bet from Thursday*
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -0.49 units at Recommend Price | +36.31 units at Betfair SP
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