BlackBook - Saturday, 18 September 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 18 September 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
TATURA - Race 1
He didn’t beat much at all, but #3 ROCK MY SOCKS OFF was the clear pick of the day as he lead from start to finish to win Heat 5 on Jul 21. Did it easily and never asked for an effort.
#5 BARONESSA was very heavily backed to win both her starts in her debut preparation, going down at $1.45 and $2.70. In her return, she clocked the fastest 700m time of the morning with a nice win in Heat 10 on Aug 25. Treading carefully, but nice win.
Fair win by #11 MIDNIGHT HUSSY. The 2yo filly showed incredible speed to take off in Heat 1 on Jul 20, lead and win by a huge margin in the fastest time of the morning. These kinds of wins can be worrying in that the horse doesn’t settle and that’s why it takes off, but she was well held and quietly ridden in a Jul 12 jump out at Cranbourne so don’t think this applies to her. It’s taking her a bit to get to the races though, with this being her fourth set of two jump outs. A $350k filly from the Inglish Melbourne Premier Yearling Sales, she looks to have some talent and look to be very speedy.
First jump out back for the Brazen Beau filly #12 STORMLIGHT and it was a nice one, travelling really wide throughout Heat 7 on Sep 10 as she went to the line alongside Celestial Sol and Cassius and did not look out of place. On the watch list for another jump out.
CAULFIELD - Race 5
#3 RANVEER a smart 700m win in Heat 9 on Aug 25. Expect him to feature in some nice races this spring.
#3 RANVEER, wow. The 3yo colt is flying, bolting in over 1000m in Heat 1 on Sep 8 with King Of Hastings 2nd and we’re very keen to see where he gets to over the Spring. He was 2nd to Profiteer on debut before being spelled and then return for an easy win to then spelled again (certainly to be saved for the Spring). Does he go to the Coolmore? Profiteer is $6 and he’s $51…
CAULFIELD - Race 8
No blinkers for #17 I’M THUNDERSTRUCK in Heat 1 on Sep 7, as a result he was slowly away but very quickly reeled in Profiteer and Starry Legend who took off to a big lead. Class above, smart gelding.
OUR THOUGHTS / BETS
Tatura, Race 1 - ROCK MY SOCKS OFF, BARONESSA, MIDNIGHT HUSSY & STORMLIGHT
Think ROCK MY SOCKS OFF is worth a bet at a big price. Drawn well with barrier 3 and although we haven't seen him since July, he's been scratched a few times (finding the right race) and we've seen Lumber Punk (3rd in jump out) come out and win a maiden second up.
BARONESSA has put together two nice jump out wins and is certainly one of the main winning hopes. If she runs to her one of her first two runs last preparation, she goes close to winning this anyway.
MIDNIGHT HUSSY has barrier 14 but that won't her from going straight to the front, she was a stack of speed. Really not sure the form from that debut race though. She ran out of steam late to finish 3rd by 4L, the horse that finished 2L behind her in 4th has since ran 7th of 8 (at $61) and 9th of 11 (at $151) in MDN's since. Ratings wise though, it's the third best last start benchmark rating coming into this.
STORMLIGHT has only had the one jump out but it was super at Flemington.
Have BARONESSA on top with STORMLIGHT a close second and then ROCK MY SOCKS OFF worth a bet at a big price. Not too keen on MIDNIGHT HUSSY from the wide barrier but she will lead and give them something to chase.
Hard race to bet in, think we're best to leave this race and have a small bet on ROCK MY SOCKS OFF at a big price - expect a drift so bet closer to the jump. Probably better to play exotics instead - first four / trifecta.
Caulfield, Race 5 - RANVEER
Think we'll see how smart he is in this race. Meets some nice gallopers who have some race fitness on him such as GENERAL BEAU. With barrier 8 of 8, we expect him to take a sit midfield in behind the speed with some cover and then peel at late and try come over the top of them. Keen to see how he goes - happy to have a small bet, especially if we can get the bonus bet back offers for this race.
Caulfield, Race 8 - I'M THUNDERSTRUCK
The jump out (without blinkers) was super but he's first up in a Group 1 with barrier 16 of 16, going to take some sort of performance to win this. His peak benchmark rating is actually the second best in the field... but we don't expect him to be winning - looks an E/W chance but we're happy to watch with no bets.
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