BlackBook - Saturday, 18 March 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 18 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Geelong, Race 1
#8 LUSCIOUS (1) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
BlackBook jump out comments:
Thought LUSCIOUS was solid in her first jump out on Feb 27 without the blinkers but the blinkers went on in Heat 9 on Mar 6 and she was a much better horse, showing plenty of speed throughout as she lead but also had a good kick on her late despite being quietly ridden. Adding to the fact that the 2nd horse was past maiden winner Southern Chilli, so she did it against solid company and handled the Heavy track here nicely. Expect an improved filly first up this prep.
It looks a race between her and THEYCALLMEBRUCE, but both $2.80 makes it hard to play and back with any confidence.
Moonee Valley, Race 2
#14 MORPHEUS BRAGI (7) - C Vidotto & C Beasy
BlackBook jump out comments:
We loved MORPHEUS BRAGI into his debut and second up maiden win and certainly think he has more wins in store, his work in Heat 1 on Mar 1 over the 1100m super and if you watch past the line, he was powering still ahead of Designs and Grand Pierro. Looking forward to seeing him go through the grades.
Last Updated: 9:12am AEDT on Saturday, 18th March 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):