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BlackBook - Saturday, 18 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 18 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BENDIGO - Race 4

OTHER

Both #1 THE CASSINI and JALPIDO closed nicely from out back and wide in Heat 11 on Feb 6, with The Cassini the pick of the top as would be expected with him a 10-start 4yo gelding that will be looking at a BM58 first up while Jalpido is a 3yo maiden with only the two starts for two placings. It was both of their first jump outs so keeping an eye out for another bit of work before resuming.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Bendigo, Race 4

#1 THE CASSINI (10) - R Griffiths & M de Kock

Medium.

We were looking for a BM58 first up but a 0-58 is even better. He's drawn a touch wide with barrier 10 but the 1100m at Bendigo is out of a chute start, so not worried.


Doubt you'll find too many in a 0-58 with better form than a 0.1L win over Bel Air only three starts ago, even his last start 4th to The Duke Of Dubai over 1300m at Sandown in a BM64 is super for a race like this.


The query is his fitness off only the only 1x trial, but he's the clear horse to beat here and should be winning this.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Flemington, Race 3

#3 MAHARBA (7) - G Begg

BlackBook jump out comments:

That Golden Gift form is very solid form going forward, the winner being Barber (current Blue Diamond favourite) while the 2nd and 3rd horses ran 3rd and 4th in the 2YO Magic Millions behind Skirt The Law. MAHARBA was 4th in the Golden Gift, 1.24L off Barber but he was all over the shop and clearly had a lot to learn. He’s been given a break and had a change of stables to Grahame Begg down in VIC, returning in Heat 6 on Feb 6 with the nose roll on where he travelled quietly off the speed before closing superbly over the concluding stages without being put under any significant query, although how he responds to that is the query given his debut. He doesn’t have a Blue Diamond nomination so it’ll be interesting to see where he ends up here in VIC.

Flemington, Race 8

#5 RIYAZAN (10) - L Jones

BlackBook jump out comments:

RIYAZAN is an 8yo with 37 starts, majority of them being in Sha Tin where he was last seen running a 5.8L last in a Group 2 behind Golden Sixty back in November 2021. He was super over 1200m in Heat 17 on Jan 16, stalking the small field of 3 until a really good turn of foot as he switched back to the inside and put a space on them with ease.


He had a more recent Feb 6 official trial over 990m and was ordinary, finishing 8.65L back in 9th (of 10 runners). He is $201+ though so had worse $5 bets.

Last Updated: 7:58am AEDT on Saturday, 18th February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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