BlackBook - Saturday, 18 December 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 18 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


COLAC - Race 1

OTHER

#2 I SEE YOU COMING has some nice form from his debut ran, despite finishing 5th where he was shin sore and immediately tipped out. The winner has since won twice, the 2nd and 4th horses came out and won their next start while 3rd has subsequently won too. He’s been given plenty of time, resuming to win Heat 1 on Dec 3 in the equal fastest time of the morning where he went straight to the front and was way too speedy. Hoping to see another jump out, but expect to see an improved horse now as a 3yo.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Colac, Race 1 - I SEE YOU COMING

POCKET ROX is an ex-BlackBook runner that we had on debut and we were keen on him. He only had the one jump out heading into it where he finished 4th, but the form from that debut race is super. He also went to the inside of the track, with the rest of the field coming down the middle or the outside, so he was clearly in the worst part of the track. The run rated +7.9, with 2nd, 3rd and 5th all winning their next starts (there was a 3L+ gap to 6th) and 1st ran 2nd in a BM58 next start. In fact, the 2nd horse was Easy Single who won her next three starts... and the 5th horse was Hunka Hunka Harry who won his next two starts. That run is the best last start rating and the third best peak rating for this race. The stewards report says he got his tongue over the bit as well.


POCKET ROX comes from the same jump out as I SEE YOU COMING, with I SEE YOU COMING clearly performing better to the eye but Kylie Vella usually trials her horses quietly. Like the booking of Harry Coffey for POCKET ROX as well.


ASFOORA jumped out alongside subsequent winner Tuki Twelve and French Comet (since 2nd MDN) and they gapped 4th, who was Serene Moon (since 3rd and 2nd MDN's). That's very good jump out form for her debut, but that was back on Nov 22 and has been her only jump out this preparation. Query on how forward she is from barrier 9 as well.

EDGY ERA needs to improve but has jumped out okay (quietly) and will go forward from barrier 4 along with LITTLE MISS RICH, who also needs to improve.


No bets here, nice little maiden that we're going to just watch. Had I SEE YOU COMING and ASFOORA on top from POCKET ROX who's very closely behind - think those three have an edge on the rest.


Colac, Race 6 - GLENFERRIE GIRL

This looks to be her race to lose. Third up now, she should be approaching peak fitness for the preparation where she has had 4x third up runs for 1x win and 1x placing. This preparation she's been running well without winning, finishing a 0.5L 2nd first up in a BM58 before finishing a very close 0.4L 3rd in a BM70 last start at Warrnambool, that run the clear best last start rating coming into this race at -2.2 with the next best at +7.0...


She's very short though, so not going to have an official bet but monitor her and maybe one for a multi.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

No bets. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall: +2.05 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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